PLINIVS-based seismic vulnerability mapping during volcanic unrest in Campi Flegrei

A replicable DRM model

Bibliographic Data

ID22025552
AuthorsGiulio Zuccaro (0000-0001-8572-067X), Daniela De Gregorio (0000-0003-0059-004X, corresponding author), Francesca Linda Perelli (0000-0003-1879-1456), Agnese Turchi (0000-0002-8562-2858), Stefano Nardone, Francesca Marrazzo
Year2026
Volume137
Pages106088
Publication date2026-04-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueInternational Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2212-4209
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106088
OpenAlexW7133549167
LanguageEN
References cited48

This paper presents a probabilistic and scalable methodology for areal seismic vulnerability mapping during volcanic unrest, applied in the densely urbanized Campi Flegrei area (Southern Italy), within the framework of recent national seismic mitigation policies. Over 12,700 residential buildings were surveyed using the PLINVS first-level survey form, and 8,671 ordinary buildings were classified into seismic vulnerability classes (A–D). On a 250×250 m grid, two vulnerability indices were computed: an absolute index (weighted and density-sensitive) and a relative index (mean building vulnerability per cell). This spatial representation supports large-scale prioritization of mitigation actions and strategic risk planning. The method integrates GIS-based field data collection (via QField), validation through post-event inspections (AeDES), comparison with second-level assessments (CARTIS), and probabilistic damage modelling using empirical fragility curves. It also quantifies classification uncertainty (entropy, variance, consistency probability) to assess confidence in the assigned vulnerability classes. By combining typological classification with spatial aggregation, the approach provides a robust estimate of seismic exposure to inform risk modelling and emergency preparedness. About 50% of buildings fall into the highest vulnerability classes (A and B), and the method shows statistically significant agreement with post-event damage observations, as verified through a chi-square test of independence and Spearman’s rank correlation analysis between assigned vulnerability class and observed usability outcome. The PLINIVS methodology has proven effective in Campi Flegrei and represents a cost-efficient, transferable screening tool for anticipatory Disaster Risk Management (DRM) in multi-hazard volcanic environments, supporting broader Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) strategies under conditions of persistent unrest and high urban exposure

Social unrest · Unrest · Volcano · earthquake and tectonic studies · High-pressure geophysics and materials · Seismic Waves and Analysis

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