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A novel clay shrink-swell buildings damage model

From unstructured insurance data to the creation of buildings database, and the proposition of damage severity scale

Bibliographic Data

ID22026513
AuthorsNoel Philmon Mzungu (Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier, corresponding author), C Negulescu (0000-0002-6222-5411, Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières), Etienne Bertrand (0000-0003-2112-0450, Université Gustave Eiffel), Arthur Perringaux (Générale de Santé), Laurent Boissier (Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier), Sébastien Gourdier (0000-0002-7077-6870, Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières), Bastien Colas (0000-0003-1528-0060, Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières), Frédéric Leone (0000-0001-6394-2909, Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier), Gilles Grandjean (0000-0002-6005-1702, Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières)
Year2025
Volume127
Pages105636
Publication date2025-09-01
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueInternational Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2212-4209
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105636
OpenAlexW4411166234
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited32

Expansive clay soils undergo seasonal moisture fluctuations, swelling when wet and shrinking during dry periods. These volumetric changes induce differential ground movements beneath buildings, often resulting in structural damage, particularly in low-rise residential buildings. In France, this phenomenon has become increasingly costly, with average annual insurance claims of 1 billion euros between 2016 and 2021, rising to 3.5 billion euros in 2022 due to severe droughts and heatwaves driven by climate change. Despite its growing impact, damage assessment remains challenging due to the scarcity of empirical data and the localized variability of soil-structure interactions. To address this, we propose a scalable, data-driven methodology that combines expert knowledge and advanced natural language processing to enable empirical risk analysis. This study introduces the Clay Shrink-Swell Damage Severity Scale, constructs a structured database of building and environmental characteristics, and identifies damageability factors based on observed damage levels. A total of 10,325 loss adjustment reports from Generali (2000–2021) were analysed. A subset of 155 reports was manually annotated and scaled to the full dataset using Large Language Models (LLMs) under a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) framework. The resulting tools provide a solid foundation for post-event assessments, support rapid field diagnostics, and enable the development of personalized prevention strategies. This work contributes to improved vulnerability modelling and more effective risk reduction in a changing climate

Cartography · Database · Forensic engineering · Geography · Proposition · Swell · Computer Science · Dam Engineering and Safety · Engineering · Environmental Science · Flood Risk Assessment and Management · Landslides and related hazards · Geology

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Citations per year1
Citation span2026 - 2026 (1)
Highly citedNo

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