An agent-based modeling framework for examining the dynamics of the hurricane-forecast-evacuation system
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 22026807 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Austin Harris (0000-0002-7147-5033, University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, corresponding author), Paul Roebber, Paul J Roebber (0000-0002-9093-0433, University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee), Rebecca E Morss (0000-0001-6267-3436, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research), Rebecca Morss |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 67 |
| Pages | 102669 |
| Publication date | 2022-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2212-4209 |
| Publisher | Elsevier BV (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102669 |
| OpenAlex | W3212153493 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 6 |
| References cited | 66 |
Hurricane evacuations involve many interacting physical-social factors and uncertainties that evolve with time as the storm approaches and arrives. Because of these complex and uncertain dynamics, improving the hurricane-forecast-evacuation system remains a formidable challenge for researchers and practitioners alike. This article introduces a modeling framework built to holistically investigate the complex dynamics of the hurricane-forecast-evacuation system i.e., to determine which factors are most important and how they interact across a range of real or synthetic scenarios. The modeling framework, called FLEE, includes models of the natural hazard (hurricane), the human system (information flow, evacuation decisions), the built environment (road infrastructure), and connections between systems (forecasts and warning information, traffic). In this paper, we describe FLEE's conceptualization and implementation and present proof-of-concept experiments illustrating its behaviors when key parameters are modified. In doing so, we show how FLEE is capable of examining the dynamics of the hurricane-forecast-evacuation system from a new perspective that is informed-by and builds-upon empirical work. This information can support researchers and practitioners in hazard risk management, meteorology, and related disciplines, thereby offering the promise of direct applications to mitigate hurricane losses
Atlantic hurricane · Business · Conceptualization · Geography · Hazard · Meteorology · Operations research · Storm · Computer Science · Disaster Management and Resilience · Engineering · Evacuation and Crowd Dynamics · Flood Risk Assessment and Management
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Factors Affecting Hurricane Evacuation Intentions
Storm Surge and “Certain Death”
The Effects of Past Hurricane Experiences on Evacuation Intentions through Risk Perception and Efficacy Beliefs
Evacuee Perception of Geophysical Hazards for Hurricane Irma
A Mental Models Study of Hurricane Forecast and Warning Production, Communication, and Decision-Making
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The Protective Action Decision Model
Hurricane risk perceptions among Florida's single family homeowners
Evacuation Decision Making and Behavioral Responses
The ODD Protocol for Describing Agent-Based and Other Simulation Models
Hurricane evacuation beliefs and behaviour of inland vs. coastal populations
Operational early warning systems for water-related hazards in Europe
The influence of cultural worldviews on people’s responses to hurricane risks and threat information
Complexity, Social Complexity, and Modeling
Experimental socioecology
| Unique citing works | 6 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2 |
| Citation span | 2023 - 2025 (3) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 6 |