Bayesian Structural Time Series and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Modelling Impacts of Covid-19 Lockdowns on the Spatiotemporal Patterns of London’s Crimes

Bibliographic Data

ID22033776
AuthorsRui Wang (0000-0001-7155-3356, King's College London), Yijing Li (0000-0002-9831-0298, King's College London, corresponding author)
Year2024
Volume13
Issue1
Pages18
Publication date2024-01-04
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2220-9964 • E-ISSN: 2220-9964
PublisherMDPI AG (PUBLISHER • IT)
DOI10.3390/ijgi13010018
OpenAlexW4390579265
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited27

Given the paramount impacts of COVID-19 on people’s lives in the capital of the UK, London, it was foreseeable that the city’s crime patterns would have undergone significant transformations, especially during lockdown periods. This study aims to testify the crime patterns’ changes in London, using data from March 2020 to March 2021 to explore the driving forces for such changes, and hence propose data-driven insights for policy makers and practitioners on London’s crime deduction and prevention potentiality in post-pandemic era. (1) Upon exploratory data analyses on the overall crime change patterns, an innovative BSTS model has been proposed by integrating restriction-level time series into the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model. This novel method allows the research to evaluate the varied effects of London’s three lockdown periods on local crimes among the regions of London. (2) Based on the predictive results from the BSTS modelling, three regression models were deployed to identify the driving forces for respective types of crime experiencing significant increases during lockdown periods. (3) The findings solidified research hypotheses on the distinct factors influencing London’s specific types of crime by period and by region. In light of the received evidence, insights on a modified policing allocation model and supporting the unemployed group was proposed in the aim of effectively mitigating the surges of crimes in London

Bayesian probability · Criminology · Econometrics · Economics · Geography · Logistic regression · Machine learning · Sociology · Time series · Computer Science · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Crime Patterns and Interventions · Data-Driven Disease Surveillance · Artificial Intelligence

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