Mobility between communities can reduce the impact of measles intervention during an outbreak
A mathematical modeling study
Bibliographic Data
Measles resurgence has occurred in a number of settings this year where elimination had been declared. Although under-vaccination of the community is the principal reason for the resurgence additional factors confound this further including community structure and mobility between under-vaccinated communities. We conducted a mathematical modeling study of the measles epidemic in Northern British Columbia, Canada during 2025. We constructed a stochastic SEIR-like model and fitted to two separate regions that experienced an outbreak using an approximate Bayesian computation rejection scheme. The calibrated model of the two regions were then used to construct a series of scenarios reflective of the epidemiological and public health situation including active case finding, post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP), population mobility, and the start of the school semester. Within this setting, inter-region mobility can increase the probability of an outbreak by as much as 50%. There was also a 46% increase of an outbreak if the initial case occurred during the school term. However, a combination of PEP and active case finding reduces this probability across all scenarios. Public health intervention can limit the potential for outbreaks, however the broader structure of the community needs to be considered to determine regions with maximum outbreak potential
Bayesian probability · Mathematical modelling of infectious disease · Measles · Outbreak · Population · Public health · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy · Virology and Viral Diseases · Epidemiology
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