Sensitivity Analysis of a Transmission Interruption Model for the Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections in Kenya
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 22068549 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Collins Okoyo (0000-0002-2647-1359, University of Nairobi, corresponding author), Nelson Owuor Onyango (0000-0003-4544-7853, University of Nairobi), Nelson Onyango, Idah Orowe (University of Nairobi), Charles Mwandawiro (0000-0001-8175-3749, Kenya Medical Research Institute), Graham Medley (0000-0002-0030-7278, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 10 |
| Pages | 841883-841883 |
| Publication date | 2022-03-25 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Frontiers in Public Health (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2296-2565 • E-ISSN: 2296-2565 |
| Publisher | Frontiers Media SA (PUBLISHER • CH) |
| DOI | 10.3389/fpubh.2022.841883 |
| PMID | 35400031 |
| OpenAlex | W4220854486 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 71 |
As the world rallies toward the endgame of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) elimination by the year 2030, there is a need for efficient and robust mathematical models that would enable STH programme managers to target the scarce resources and interventions, increase treatment coverage among specific sub-groups of the population, and develop reliable surveillance systems that meet sensitivity and specificity requirements for the endgame of STH elimination. However, the considerable complexities often associated with STH-transmission models underpin the need for specifying a large number of parameters and inputs, which are often available with considerable degree of uncertainty. Additionally, the model may behave counter-intuitive especially when there are non-linearities in multiple input-output relationships. In this study, we performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA), based on a variance decomposition method: extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (eFAST), to a recently developed STH-transmission model in Kenya (an STH endemic country) to; (1) robustly compute sensitivity index (SI) for each parameter, (2) rank the parameters in order of their importance (from most to least influential), and (3) quantify the influence of each parameter, singly and cumulatively, on the model output. The sensitivity analysis (SA) results demonstrated that the model outcome (STH worm burden elimination in the human host) was significantly sensitive to some key parameter groupings: combined effect of improved water source and sanitation (φ), rounds of treatment offered (τ), efficacy of the drug used during treatment ( h ), proportion of the adult population treated ( g a : akin to community-wide treatment), mortality rate of the mature worms in the human host (μ), and the strength of the -dependence of worm egg production (γ). For STH control programmes to effectively reach the endgame (STH elimination in the entire community), these key parameter groupings need to be targeted since together they contribute to a strategic public health intervention
Econometrics · Environmental health · Population · Population model · Sanitation · Statistics · Computer Science · Engineering · Helminth infection and control · Mathematics · Medicine · Parasite Biology and Host Interactions · Parasites and Host Interactions
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (Dalys) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (Hale) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017
Global sensitivity indices for nonlinear mathematical models and their Monte Carlo estimates
Modeling the Interruption of the Transmission of Soil-Transmitted Helminths Infections in Kenya
Prevalence and Correlation Analysis of Soil-Transmitted Helminths Infections and Treatment Coverage for Preschool and School Aged Children in Kenya
Uncertainty
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |