Ageing Population's Impact on Economic Growth in Malaysia From 1981 to 2019

Evidence From an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

Bibliographic Data

ID22069961
AuthorsSiti Nur Ain Mohd (National University of Malaysia, corresponding author), Ayunee Anis Ishak (National University of Malaysia, corresponding author), Doris Padmini Selvaratnam (0000-0001-5789-6248, National University of Malaysia)
Year2021
Volume9
Pages731554-731554
Publication date2021-11-24
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueFrontiers in Public Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2296-2565 • E-ISSN: 2296-2565
PublisherFrontiers Media SA (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3389/fpubh.2021.731554
PMID35004564
OpenAlexW3217324624
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited17

This study investigates the impact of the ageing population on the economic growth for short- and long-run estimations in Malaysia, by using time series data from 1981 to 2019. This study adopts the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method with the Bound test approach for the long-run estimation and the vector error correction model for the short-run estimation. Several econometric diagnostic tests were applied for validation and the appropriate model specification basis. The estimated result of this work indicates that the age dependency ratio proxy for the ageing population variable has a significant negative impact on economic growth in Malaysia. A 1% increase in old age dependency will decline gross domestic product's (GDP's) growth by an average of 6.6043% at the 5% level of significance. Hence, an increase in the ageing population will impede economic growth. Although controlled variables (e.g., physical capital, labour participation, and human capital) have a significant positive impact on economic growth in Malaysia, there is evidence of a long- and short-run relationship between economic growth and the ageing population variable, and also the control variable

Ageing · Autoregressive model · Biology · Cointegration · Dependency ratio · Distributed lag · Econometrics · Economic growth · Economics · Endogeneity · Error correction model · Gross domestic product · Human capital · Lag · Macroeconomics · Population · Population ageing · Population growth · Short run · Statistics · Time series · Computer Science · Demography · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth · Global Health Care Issues · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Mathematics

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