Gleason score, surgical and distant metastasis are associated with cancer-specific survival and overall survival in middle aged high-risk prostate cancer

Objective: According to statistics, patients with high-risk prostate cancer (PC) account for about 15% of prostate cancer diagnoses, and high-risk patients usually have a poor prognosis due to metastasis and recurrence and have a high mortality rate. Therefore, the accurate prediction of prognostic-related risk factors in middle-aged high-risk PC patients between 50 and 65 can help reduce patient mortality. We aimed to construct new nomograms for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) and Overall survival (OS) in middle-aged high-risk PC patients. Methods: Data for patients aged between 50 and 65 years old and diagnosed with high-risk PC were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to identify independent risk factors for CSS and OS in patients. Nomograms predicting CSS and OS were developed based on multivariate Cox regression models. The concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and the calibration curve are used to detect the accuracy and discrimination of the model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) is used to detect the potential clinical value of this model. Results: = 505) were randomly assigned in a ratio of 7:3. The results showed that M stage, Gleason (GS) and surgical mode were independent risk factors for CSS; marital status, T stage, M stage, surgical mode, and GS were independent risk factors for OS. The C-index for predicting CSS in the training and validation groups are 0.84 and 0.811, respectively; the C-index for predicting OS in the training and validation groups are 0.824 and 0.784, respectively. The AUC and the calibration curves also showed good accuracy and discrimination. Conclusions: We constructed new nomograms to predict CSS and OS in middle-aged high-risk PC patients. The prediction tools showed good accuracy and reliability, which can help clinicians and patients to make better clinical decisions

Cancer · Concordance · Multivariate analysis · Multivariate statistics · Nomogram · Population · Proportional hazards model · Prostate cancer · Receiver operating characteristic · Statistics · Univariate · Inflammatory Biomarkers in Disease Prognosis · Medicine · Prostate Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment · Prostate Cancer Treatment and Research · Internal Medicine · Oncology

• Cancer statistics, 2022

  Open Access•Rebecca L Siegel, Kimberly D Miller et al.•CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians•2022

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