Modeling of the Small-Scale Outbreak of Covid-19

Bibliographic Data

ID22071875
AuthorsZe-Yang Wu (Huaqiao University), Hongbo Zhang (0000-0002-3866-7711, Huaqiao University, corresponding author), Hong-Bo Zhang, Hongfei Zhao (0000-0001-9507-3162, National University of Singapore), Hong-Fei Zhao
Year2022
Volume10
Pages907814-907814
Publication date2022-07-01
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueFrontiers in Public Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2296-2565 • E-ISSN: 2296-2565
PublisherFrontiers Media SA (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3389/fpubh.2022.907814
PMID35844852
OpenAlexW4283751768
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited33

With the improvement of treatment and prevention methods, many countries have the pandemic under control. Different from the globally large-scale outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020, now the outbreak in these countries shows new characteristics, which calls for an effective epidemic model to describe the transmission dynamics. Meeting this need, first, we extensively investigate the small-scale outbreaks in different provinces of China and use classic compartmental models, which have been widely used in predictions, to forecast the outbreaks. Additionally, we further propose a new version of cellular automata with a time matrix, to simulate outbreaks. Finally, the experimental results show that the proposed cellular automata could effectively simulate the small-scale outbreak of COVID-19, which provides insights into the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in China and help countries with small-scale outbreaks to determine and implement effective intervention measures. The countries with relatively small populations will also get useful information about the epidemic from our research

Cartography · China · Disease · Geography · Outbreak · Pandemic · Telecommunications · Computer Science · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models · Medicine · Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence · Virology

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