Risk prediction model of physical frailty for a rural older population

A cross-sectional study in Hunan Province, China

Bibliographic Data

ID22074697
AuthorsXiuyan Guo (0000-0002-8656-2455, Jiujiang University), Chunhong Shi (0000-0002-2633-221X, Xiangnan University, corresponding author)
Year2025
Volume13
Pages1525580-1525580
Publication date2025-02-28
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueFrontiers in Public Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2296-2565 • E-ISSN: 2296-2565
PublisherFrontiers Media SA (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3389/fpubh.2025.1525580
PMID40093732
OpenAlexW4408042615
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited63

Introduction: Physical frailty is a common medical syndrome characterized by low muscle strength, low endurance, and reduced physiological function that leads to significantly negative health outcomes in older adults. This study investigated the risk variables among rural older adults in Hunan Province, China, and developed a physical frailty prediction model to inform policymaking to enhance their health and well-being. Methods: This study was conducted from July 22 to September 3, 2022. A total of 291 participants were recruited using stratified cluster random sampling from five large villages in Hunan Province. Frailty screening was performed based on the Fatigue, Resistance, Ambulation, Illnesses, and Loss of Weight (FRAIL) scale, Geriatric Depression Scale 15-item version (GDS-15), Falls Efficacy Scale-International (FES-I), and Mini Nutrition Assessment-Short Form (MNA-SF). A logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the predictive factors for physical frailty and develop a physical frailty prediction model based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and Youden index. Results: = 62). Household income and expenditure [odds ratio (OR): 1.826, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.142-2.918], physical exercise frequency (OR: 1.669, 95% CI: 1.137-2.451), depressive symptoms (OR: 9.069, 95% CI: 3.497-23.516), and fear of falling (OR: 3.135, 95% CI: 1.689-5.818) were identified as significant predictors of physical frailty in rural older individuals. The AUC for the frailty predictive model was 0.860 (95% CI: 0.805, 0.914). The sensitivity and specificity at the optimal cutoff value were 80.6 and 76.0%, respectively, with a Youden index of 0.566. Conclusion: The prediction model constructed in this study demonstrated promise as a potential tool for evaluating physical frailty risk in older adults, which can contribute to healthcare providers' screenings for high-risk populations. Further multidimensional and experimental intervention studies should be conducted to prevent the occurrence and delay the progression of physical frailty in older adults

Confidence interval · Cross-sectional study · Depressive symptoms · Environmental health · Geriatric Depression Scale · Logistic regression · Odds ratio · Physical therapy · Population · Psychiatry · Receiver operating characteristic · Chronic Disease Management Strategies · Demography · Frailty in Older Adults · Medicine · Nutrition and Health in Aging · Gerontology · Internal Medicine

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