A new prediction model for overall survival of elderly patients with solitary bone plasmacytoma

Background: Comprehensive studies on the prognosis of solitary bone plasmacytoma (SPB) are lacking, especially in elderly patients with SPB. This study aims to establish a novel nomogram and risk stratification system to predict the overall survival (OS) of elderly patients with SPB. Methods: = 354). The Cox regression analysis was used to determine the independent risk factors for OS in elderly SPB patients. The nomogram was established and assessed by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), the consistency index (C-index), and the calibration plot. Patients were divided into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups based on the score of the nomogram. The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curve was used to verify the differences in overall survival among the three groups. Result: A total of 1,179 elderly patients with SPB were included in the study. Age at diagnosis, prior cancer before SPB, marital status, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were independent risk factors of OS. The AUC of the 3, 5, and 8-year OS in the training and validation sets were between 0.707 and 0.860. The C-index and calibration plot also indicated that the nomogram has great predictive accuracy and robustness. After risk stratification, patients in the high-risk group had the worst OS. Conclusion: A novel nomogram was built to predict the OS of elderly patients with SPB. It will help clinicians formulate more reasonable and personalized treatment strategies

Area under the curve · Confidence interval · Nomogram · Population · Proportional hazards model · Receiver operating characteristic · Lymphoma Diagnosis and Treatment · Medicine · Multiple Myeloma Research and Treatments · Myeloproliferative Neoplasms: Diagnosis and Treatment · Internal Medicine · Oncology