Toward healthy air quality under CMIP6 scenarios
Insights into the compliance with the new WHO guidelines in China
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 22077606 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Ziqi Jia (0000-0002-1480-9498, Nanjing University of Science and Technology), Yue Yuan (0000-0003-1401-0907, Hainan Meteorology Administration), Xurong Wang (0000-0002-7921-1809, Forschungszentrum Jülich), Fuzhen Shen (0000-0003-0817-3259, Forschungszentrum Jülich, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 14 |
| Pages | 1803304-1803304 |
| Publication date | 2026-03-16 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Frontiers in Public Health (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2296-2565 • E-ISSN: 2296-2565 |
| Publisher | Frontiers Media SA (PUBLISHER • CH) |
| DOI | 10.3389/fpubh.2026.1803304 |
| PMID | 41919303 |
| OpenAlex | W7136216993 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 44 |
Ambient PM 2.5 and O 3 pollution remain major threats to public health, especially under the more stringent 2021 World Health Organization Air Quality Guidelines (WHO AQGs). We develop an integrated framework that combines bias-corrected CMIP6 simulations of PM 2.5 and O 3 during 2015–2100 under three representative concentration pathways (SSP-RCPs) with the Air Quality Index (AQI) and the Health-based Air Quality Index (HAQI). Using the WHO guideline thresholds and exposure-response functions, we quantify the compliance of two air pollutants and AQI/HAQI in national, regional scales, and also 25 cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), China. Under SSP-RCP1–2.6, national mean PM 2.5 concentrations declines from 17.4 to 9.0 μg/m 3 and meet the WHO daily guideline shortly after 2020. While O 3 decreases from 88.3 to 62.6 μg/m 3 and remains below 100 μg/m 3 . AQI and HAQI both improve from the WHO Target-II toward Target-III after mid-century. Under SSP-RCP2-4.5, PM 2.5 and O 3 show only moderate improvement. AQI stays in Target-II and HAQI shifts to Target-I at the beginning. Under SSP-RCP3-7.0, O 3 exceeds 100 μg/m 3 after 2060s and HAQI surpasses 150 in some regions by 2090s. The YRD emerges as the long-term hotspot. In YRD, about 58% of cities achieve HAQI ≤ 50 under SSP-RCP1-2.6 after 2050s, while no city achieve this goal under the other two scenarios. Those results highlight that HAQI reveal multipollutant health burden rather than AQI and ambitious, region-specific, multipollutant control and climate-mitigation policies are essential to meet WHO health-based air quality targets
Air pollutants · Air pollution · Air quality index · China · Guideline · Public health · Air Quality and Health Impacts · Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols · COVID-19 impact on air quality
Health Effects of Fine Particulate Air Pollution
The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
Characteristics, health risks, and premature mortality attributable to ambient air pollutants in four functional areas in Jining, China
The rationale behind updates to ambient ozone guidelines and standards
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications
Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways
| Highly cited | No |
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