A Bayesian Model to Analyze the Association of Rheumatoid Arthritis With Risk Factors and Their Interactions

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic autoimmune disorder that commonly manifests as destructive joint inflammation but also affects multiple other organ systems. The pathogenesis of RA is complex where a variety of factors including comorbidities, demographic, and socioeconomic variables are known to associate with RA and influence the progress of the disease. In this work, we used a Bayesian logistic regression model to quantitatively assess how these factors influence the risk of RA, individually and through their interactions. Using cross-sectional data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a set of 11 well-known RA risk factors such as age, gender, ethnicity, body mass index (BMI), and depression were selected to predict RA. We considered up to third-order interactions between the risk factors and implemented factor analysis of mixed data (FAMD) to account for both the continuous and categorical natures of these variables. The model was further optimized over the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) using a genetic algorithm (GA) with the optimal predictive model having a smoothed AUC of 0.826 (95% CI: 0.801–0.850) on a validation dataset and 0.805 (95% CI: 0.781–0.829) on a holdout test dataset. Apart from corroborating the influence of individual risk factors on RA, our model identified a strong association of RA with multiple second- and third-order interactions, many of which involve age or BMI as one of the factors. This observation suggests a potential role of risk-factor interactions in RA disease mechanism. Furthermore, our findings on the contribution of RA risk factors and their interactions to disease prediction could be useful in developing strategies for early diagnosis of RA

Body mass index · Categorical variable · Disease · Environmental health · Logistic regression · Machine learning · National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey · Population · Receiver operating characteristic · Rheumatoid arthritis · Rheumatoid factor · Risk factor · Computer Science · Hepatitis C virus research · Medicine · Rheumatoid Arthritis Research and Therapies · Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Research · Internal Medicine

• Intervertebral disc degeneration—Current therapeutic options and challenges

  Open Access•Ankita Samanta, Thomas Lufkin et al.•Frontiers in Public Health•2023

  Incluir item

• General Methods for Monitoring Convergence of Iterative Simulations

  Stephen P Brooks, Andrew Gelman•Journal of Computational and…•1998

  Incluir item

• FactoMineR

  Open Access•Sébastien Lê, Julie Josse et al.•Journal of Statistical Software•2008

  Incluir item

• Regression Shrinkage and Selection Via the Lasso

  Open Access•Robert Tibshirani•Journal of the Royal Statistical…•1996

  Incluir item

• Monitoring Depression Treatment Outcomes With the Patient Health Questionnaire-9

  Bernd L??we, Bernd L we et al.•Medical Care•2004

  Incluir item