To Procrastinate or Not to Procrastinate
A Retrospective Study of the Optimal Timing of Containing the Global Spread of the Covid-19 Pandemic
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 22085202 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Jun Li (0000-0001-5824-6626, Sun Yat-sen University), Lingjian Ye (0000-0001-8732-593X, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Yimin Zhou (0000-0003-2337-776X, Chinese Academy of Sciences, corresponding author), Joy Yueyue Zhang (0000-0003-0384-8376, University of Kent), Zhuo Chen (0000-0002-5351-3489, Xi'an International Studies University) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 9 |
| Pages | 613980-613980 |
| Publication date | 2021-08-03 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Frontiers in Public Health (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2296-2565 • E-ISSN: 2296-2565 |
| Publisher | Frontiers Media SA (PUBLISHER • CH) |
| DOI | 10.3389/fpubh.2021.613980 |
| PMID | 34414148 |
| OpenAlex | W3178624642 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 27 |
As global public health is under threat by the 2019-nCoV and a potential new wave of large-scale epidemic outbreak and spread is looming, an imminent question to ask is what the optimal strategy of epidemic prevention and control (P&C) measures would be, especially in terms of the timing of enforcing aggressive policy response so as to maximize health efficacy and to contain pandemic spread. Based on the current global pandemic statistic data, here we developed a logistic probability function configured SEIR model to analyse the COVID-19 outbreak and estimate its transmission pattern under different “anticipate- or delay-to-activate” policy response scenarios in containing the pandemic. We found that the potential positive effects of stringent pandemic P&C measures would be almost canceled out in case of significantly delayed action, whereas a partially procrastinatory wait-and-see control policy may still be able to contribute to containing the degree of epidemic spread although its effectiveness may be significantly compromised compared to a scenario of early intervention coupled with stringent P&C measures. A laissez-faire policy adopted by the government and health authority to tackling the uncertainly of COVID19-type pandemic development during the early stage of the outbreak turns out to be a high risk strategy from optimal control perspective, as significant damages would be produced as a consequence
Actuarial science · Disease · Economics · Outbreak · Pandemic · Procrastination · Public economics · Public health · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts · Medicine · Psychology · Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research · Virology
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The epidemiology and pathogenesis of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) outbreak
Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of Covid-19
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Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020
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Modified Seir and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of Covid-19 in China under public health interventions
A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern
Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of Covid-19
Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China
The continuing 2019-nCoV epidemic threat of novel coronaviruses to global health — The latest 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China
Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) Outbreak in China
Coronavirus Outbreak—an Evolving Global Health Emergency
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |