Forecasting Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes Incidence and Burden
The ViLA-Obesity Simulation Model
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 22086142 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Roch A Nianogo (0000-0001-5932-6169, University of California, Los Angeles, corresponding author), Onyebuchi A Arah (0000-0002-9067-1697, University of California, Los Angeles) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 10 |
| Pages | 818816-818816 |
| Publication date | 2022-04-05 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Frontiers in Public Health (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2296-2565 • E-ISSN: 2296-2565 |
| Publisher | Frontiers Media SA (PUBLISHER • CH) |
| DOI | 10.3389/fpubh.2022.818816 |
| PMID | 35450123 |
| OpenAlex | W4226228696 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 28 |
Background: Obesity is a major public health problem affecting millions of Americans and is considered one of the most potent risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Assessing future disease burden is important for informing policy-decision making for population health and healthcare. Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a computer model of a cohort of children born in Los Angeles County to study the life course incidence and trends of obesity and its effect on type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods: We built the Virtual Los Angeles cohort-ViLA, an agent-based model calibrated to the population of Los Angeles County. In particular, we developed the ViLA-Obesity model, a simulation suite within our ViLA platform that integrated trends in the causes and consequences of obesity, focusing on diabetes as a key obesity consequence during the life course. Each agent within the model exhibited obesity- and diabetes-related healthy and unhealthy behaviors such as sugar-sweetened beverage consumption, physical activity, fast-food consumption, fresh fruits, and vegetable consumption. In addition, agents could gain or lose weight and develop type 2 diabetes mellitus with a certain probability dependent on the agent's socio-demographics, past behaviors and past weight or type 2 diabetes status. We simulated 98,230 inhabitants from birth to age 65 years, living in 235 neighborhoods. Results: The age-specific incidence of obesity generally increased from 10 to 30% across the life span with two notable peaks at age 6-12 and 30-39 years, while that of type 2 diabetes mellitus generally increased from <2% at age 18-24 to reach a peak of 25% at age 40-49. The 16-year risks of obesity were 32.1% (95% CI: 31.8%, 32.4%) for children aged 2-17 and 81% (95% CI: 80.8%, 81.3%) for adults aged 18-65. The 48-year risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus was 53.4% (95% CI: 53.1%, 53.7%) for adults aged 18-65. Conclusion: This ViLA-Obesity model provides an insight into the future burden of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus in Los Angeles County, one of the most diverse places in the United States. It serves as a platform for conducting experiments for informing evidence-based policy-making
Diabetes mellitus · Environmental health · Obesity · Type 2 diabetes · Computer Science · demographic modeling and climate adaptation · Diabetes Management and Research · Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins · Mathematics · Medicine · Endocrinology · Internal Medicine
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| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,5 |
| Citation span | 2024 - 2024 (1) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |