Unveiling the interplay between climate variability and economic growth in India
An auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 22110602 |
|---|---|
| Authors | K Nirmal Ravi Kumar (0000-0002-0041-572X, Acharya N. G. Ranga Agricultural University), K Gurava Reddy (Acharya N. G. Ranga Agricultural University), M Jagan Mohan Reddy (Professor Jayashankar Telangana Agricultural University), Adinan Bahahudeen Shafiwu (0000-0002-0932-3688, University for Development Studies, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 10 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Publication date | 2024-12-31 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Cogent Social Sciences (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2331-1886 • E-ISSN: 2331-1886 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/23311886.2024.2352507 |
| OpenAlex | W4396921007 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 30 |
This study offers a comprehensive analysis of the impact of extreme weather events, intensified by climate change, on India’s real Gross National Product. Focusing on hydro-geological factors crucial for India’s Gross National Product, the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model reveals significant insights. Notably, the study reveals a significant positive correlation between the lagged real GNP (GNP(−1)) and current real GNP, emphasizing the persistence of economic growth trends. Gross Fixed Capital Formation emerges as a key determinant, with a 0.50% increase in economic growth corresponding to a 1% rise in GFCF. Forest land and rainfall exhibited substantial positive associations, contributing to a noteworthy 1.674 and 0.099% with economic growth. Conversely, CO2 emissions, rising temperatures (both Maximum Temperature and Minimum Temperature) exerted a significant negative influence on real GNP, emphasizing the need for sustainable emission reduction strategies. ARDL Bounds Test, revealed existence of a long-run relationship between real GNP and the selected variables. An ECM-Long Run Test underscores the lasting impact, with a 32.4% adjustment towards long-run equilibrium. The study establishes a bi-directional causality between real Gross National Product and carbon dioxide emissions, emphasizing the interconnectedness of economic growth and emissions. This underscores the urgency for addressing climate change alongside sustainable economic development. The findings serve as a crucial guide for evidence-based policymaking, urging proactive strategies to navigate climate challenges and ensure a prosperous, sustainable future for India. The findings contribute to the existing literature, emphasizing the multifaceted nature of factors shaping India’s sustained economic development
Autoregressive model · Climate change · Development economics · Distributed lag · Econometrics · Economic geography · Economic system · Economics · Lag · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Computer Science · Energy, Environment, Economic Growth · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact · Geology
Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root
The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions
Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships Over Time
Testing for a unit root in time series regression
Economic Growth and the Environment
Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships
The economic geography of the impacts of climate change
How agricultural technologies and climatic factors affect India's crop production? A roadmap towards sustainable agriculture
Estimating global impacts from climate change
To Slow or Not to Slow
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |