Revisiting China-Middle East Trade Interdependence

This study examines the evolving trade interdependence between China and Middle Eastern countries through the lens of Global Value Chains (GVCs). The findings show distinct patterns of bilateral GVC dependence. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, China’s GVC reliance on the Middle East has declined across most industries, with capital-intensive and medium-technology manufacturing remaining key areas of linkage. In contrast, the Middle East has seen a rise in its GVC dependence on China, especially in capital-intensive and knowledge-intensive sectors. After the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, these shifts accelerated: the region’s reliance on Chinese value-added exports expanded, while the decline in China’s dependence began to stabilise. These trends reflect the differentiated roles of the two sides within global production networks—China as a comprehensive manufacturing hub and the Middle East as an energy supplier and growing importer of Chinese industrial and technological goods

East Asia · Global value chain · Globalization · Terms of trade · Belt and Road Initiative · Herbal Medicine and Trade Cooperation · World Systems and Global Transformations