Exploring Fertility Dynamics and Factors Shaping Russia’s Demographic Prospects

Bibliographic Data

ID22201698
AuthorsVladimir Arkhangelskiy (Russian Academy of Sciences), Vladimir N Arkhangelskiy (0000-0002-7091-9632, Institute for Demographic Research—Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia), Svetlana Yu Sivoplyasova (0000-0002-3239-4230, Russian Academy of Sciences), E M Moiseeva (0000-0001-7571-2369, Russian Academy of Sciences)
Year2024
Volume8
Issue2
Pages291-312
Publication date2024-07-19
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueChanging Societies and Personalities (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2587-6104 • E-ISSN: 2587-8964
PublisherUral Federal University (PUBLISHER • RU)
DOI10.15826/csp.2024.8.2.275
OpenAlexW4400896982
LanguageEN
References cited28

The research examines fertility patterns in Russia by using current calendar birth rates and their implications for actual generations. Birth rates for these generations are derived from the 2020 Census data and are further refined through calculations employing one-year age-specific rates. This methodology allows us to estimate parameters for age-specific fertility models in real generations, offering a different approach compared to traditional population census methods. Given the variance in fertility rates by birth order, the analysis favors a segmented approach, separately considering trends for first, second, third, and subsequent births. Factors influencing fertility are examined both statistically, with a focus on the impact of population age–sex structure transformations on overall fertility rates, and through insights from Vyborochnoe nabliudenie reproduktivnykh planov naseleniia [Sample Observation of Population Reproductive Plans] performed by Rosstat [Federal State Statistics Service] in 2022. Value orientations are the primary determinant in reproductive behavior, which means that a key goal of demographic policy is to influence these orientations. However, it is also possible to influence fertility rates through social and demographic policies creating favorable conditions for families to fulfill their desire for children

Birth rate · Census · Demographic analysis · Demographic economics · Economics · Estimation · Family planning · Fertility · Geography · Population · Research methodology · Sociology · Total fertility rate · Demography · Regional Socio-Economic Development Trends · Socioeconomic and Demographic Analysis

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