Exploring the driving mechanism and scenario prediction of the spatialtemporal pattern of resilience of urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River

As a core engine of regional economic development, the scientific evaluation of Urban Resilience (UR) is crucial for enhancing regional sustainable and addressing uncertain risks. This study constructs a five-dimensional framework to reinterpret the connotation of UR and reveals the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of UR in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration (MRYRUA) through spatiotemporal evolution analysis, precisely identifying spatially vulnerable areas. Additionally, we develop an interpretable machine learning model to identify key driving factors and simulate UR development pathways under different scenarios. The results indicate: (1) From 2008 to 2023, the UR level of MRYRUA showed an average annual growth rate of 10.02%, exhibiting a significant upward trend. The spatial structure exhibits a core-periphery hierarchy centered on Wuhan, Changsha, and Nanchang, with a bimodal east-west distribution and a peak-valley north-south pattern. (2) Among the five subsystems of UR, social resilience grew the fastest, with a growth rate of 11.68%, while ecological resilience lagged behind, with a growth rate of only 1.02%. (3) Entrepreneurial activity, industrial structure advancement, and human capital level are the core drivers for improving UR, whereas foreign trade intensity and rainfall exhibit negative impacts. (4) Under the innovation-driven scenario, the UR level will significantly improve, while the foreign trade optimization scenario shows the weakest effect. This study provides scientific insights for urban planning and the development of differentiated resilience enhancement strategies for similar urban agglomerations globally

Connotation · Hierarchy · Sustainable development · Urban agglomeration · Urban resilience · Yangtze river · Disaster Management and Resilience · Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis · Regional resilience and development