The Effect of El Niño on Flood Damages in the Western United States
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 22331651 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Thomas W Corringham (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, corresponding author), Daniel R Cayan (0000-0002-2719-6811, Scripps Institution of Oceanography) |
| Year | 2019 |
| Volume | 11 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 489-504 |
| Publication date | 2019-07-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Weather, Climate, and Society (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1948-8327 • E-ISSN: 1948-8335 |
| Publisher | American Meteorological Society (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1175/wcas-d-18-0071.1 |
| OpenAlex | W2923381011 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 5 |
| References cited | 41 |
This paper quantifies insured flood losses across the western United States from 1978 to 2017, presenting a spatiotemporal analysis of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) daily claims and losses over this period. While considerably lower (only 3.3%) than broader measures of direct damages measured by a National Weather Service (NWS) dataset, NFIP insured losses are highly correlated to the annual damages in the NWS dataset, and the NFIP data provide flood impacts at a fine degree of spatial resolution. The NFIP data reveal that 1% of extreme events, covering wide spatial areas, caused over 66% of total insured losses. Connections between extreme events and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that have been documented in past research are borne out in the insurance data. In coastal Southern California and across the Southwest, El Niño conditions have had a strong effect in producing more frequent and higher magnitudes of insured losses, while La Niña conditions significantly reduce both the frequency and magnitude of losses. In the Pacific Northwest, the opposite pattern appears, although the effect is weaker and less spatially coherent. The persistent evolution of ENSO offers the possibility for property owners, policy makers, and emergency planners and responders that unusually high or low flood damages could be predicted in advance of the primary winter storm period along the West Coast. Within the 40-yr NFIP history, it is found that the multivariate ENSO index would have provided an 8-month look-ahead for heightened damages in Southern California
Actuarial science · Business · Casualty insurance · Climatology · Damages · El Niño Southern Oscillation · Flood insurance · Flood myth · Geography · Insurance policy · Meteorology · National weather service · Political science · Property insurance · Storm · Environmental Science · Flood Risk Assessment and Management · Hydrology and Drought Analysis · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Geology
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Uncovering Drivers of Atmospheric River Flood Damage Using Interpretable Machine Learning
El Niño Southern Oscillation Reconstructions During the Last Millennium
| Citations per year | 0.83 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2020 - 2026 (7) |
| Highly cited | No |