Modeling the Impact of Rural–Urban Migration on Carbon Intensity

The environmentally constrained urban–rural dual dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework classifies the population into three categories: residents of large metropolitan areas, rural–urban migration, and rural inhabitants, including those living in small- and medium-sized cities. This paper focuses on the connections between large cities and rural manufacturing sectors and examines the dynamic effects of rural–urban migration on carbon emission intensity. In addition, it compares the heterogeneous impacts of migration policies under different levels of propensity and investigates the possibility of employment discrimination. The results show that an expansion of rural–urban migration increases aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) while lowering overall carbon intensity. At the sectoral level, rural output rises with a concurrent decline in rural carbon intensity, whereas urban output also increases but is accompanied by higher urban carbon intensity. Moreover, a more gradual rollback of rural–urban migration policies leads to a substantial expansion of the migrant population, a significant increase in national GDP, and a substantial reduction in carbon intensity. By contrast, the presence of employment discrimination dampens national GDP growth and raises carbon emission intensity. Overall, these findings imply that advancing toward carbon neutrality requires the further relaxation of rural–urban migration policies and the elimination of employment discrimination

Carbon fibers · Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium · Greenhouse gas · Metropolitan area · Population · Rural area · Urbanization · Energy, Environment, Economic Growth · Environmental Impact and Sustainability · Land Use and Ecosystem Services