Visualizing Uncertainty in Hurricane Forecasts with Animated Risk Trajectories
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 22332007 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Jessica K Witt (0000-0003-1139-1599, Colorado State University), Zachary M Labe (0000-0002-6394-7651, Colorado State University), Amelia C Warden (0000-0002-8916-1825, Colorado State University), Benjamin Clegg (0000-0001-6026-5076, Colorado State University) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 15 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 407-424 |
| Publication date | 2023-04-01 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Weather, Climate, and Society (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1948-8327 • E-ISSN: 1948-8335 |
| Publisher | American Meteorological Society (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1175/wcas-d-21-0173.1 |
| OpenAlex | W4362659553 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 6 |
Hurricane forecasts are often communicated through visualizations depicting the possible future track of the storm. The cone of uncertainty (COU) is a commonly used visualization, but the graphic is prone to misinterpretation such as thinking only locations contained within the cone’s boundary are at risk. In this study, we investigated the utility of conveying hurricane forecast tracks using a set of animated icons, each representing an instance of a possible storm path. We refer to this new visualization as animated risk trajectories (ARTs). We measured nonexperts’ perception of risk when viewing simplified, hypothetical hurricane forecasts presented as ARTs or COUs. To measure perception of risk for each visualization type, we designed experiments to have participants make decisions to evacuate individual towns at varying distances from the most likely forecast path of a storm. The ARTs led to greater risk perception in areas that fell beyond the cone’s boundaries. Nonexperts’ interpretation of risk was impacted by the visual properties of the ARTs, such as the distribution of the icons, including their density, and whether the distribution was unimodal or bimodal. This supports the suggestion that ARTs can have value in communicating spatial–temporal uncertainty
Consensus forecast · Econometrics · Economics · Emergency management · Geography · Meteorology · Perception · Risk management · Risk perception · Storm · Visualization · Computer Science · Disaster Management and Resilience · Geographic Information Systems Studies · Mathematics · Psychology · Public Relations and Crisis Communication · Artificial Intelligence · Finance
| Citations per year | 0.67 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2023 - 2026 (4) |
| Highly cited | No |