Forecast Uncertainty Information Improves Multialternative Risky Decision-Making
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 22332155 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Jee Hoon Han (0000-0002-8105-526X, University of Washington), Susan Joslyn (0000-0002-4452-0695, University of Washington) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 299-311 |
| Publication date | 2025-04-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Weather, Climate, and Society (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1948-8327 • E-ISSN: 1948-8335 |
| Publisher | American Meteorological Society (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1175/wcas-d-24-0119.1 |
| OpenAlex | W4410314996 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 9 |
Research suggests that nonexperts make better decisions in binary decision tasks and have higher trust in forecasts that include numeric uncertainty estimates (e.g., 30% chance) compared to single-value forecasts (e.g., 6-in. snow accumulation). However, in real-world situations in which one must choose between protective action at a cost or risking a larger probabilistic loss, there is often an intermediate option. Two experiments, reported here, tested whether the previously shown advantages for numeric uncertainty forecasts generalize to decisions with three options. In a snow-day school closure paradigm, a 2-option condition (close, open) was compared to a 3-option condition that also included a cheaper alternative (delay) with less protection than closing, but more protection than staying open when snow occurred. The advantages of probabilistic forecasts persisted regardless of the number of options. In addition, the risk-seeking tendency, typical for decisions between losses, was attenuated in the 3-option condition in experiment 1 and reversed in experiment 2
Econometrics · Economics · Operations research · Computer Science · Engineering · Forecasting Techniques and Applications
Cognitive Load Theory and the Format of Instruction
Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk
Prospect Theory
The Impact of Weather Forecast Inconsistency on User Trust
The Impact of Forecast Inconsistency and Probabilistic Forecasts on Users’ Trust and Decision-Making
Geographic Specificity, Tornadoes, and Protective Action
Communicating Uncertainty Information in a Dynamic Decision Environment
Decision time as a function of the number and complexity of equally attractive alternatives
Witness confidence and witness accuracy
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |