Map-Based Ensemble Forecasts for Maritime Operations
An Interactive Usability Assessment with Decision Scenarios
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 22332191 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Jelmer Jeuring (0000-0001-7530-7160, Norwegian Meteorological Institute), Eirik Mikal Samuelsen (0000-0003-2018-8170, Norwegian Meteorological Institute), Machiel Lamers (0000-0002-4189-3066, Wageningen University & Research), Malte Müller (0000-0002-3393-4112, Norwegian Meteorological Institute), Bjørn Åge Hjøllo (Navtor (Norway)), Laurent Bertino (0000-0002-1220-7207, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center), Berit Hagen (Norwegian Meteorological Institute) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 16 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 235-256 |
| Publication date | 2024-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Weather, Climate, and Society (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1948-8327 • E-ISSN: 1948-8335 |
| Publisher | American Meteorological Society (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0076.1 |
| OpenAlex | W4391779783 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 14 |
Previous research indicates that forecast uncertainty can, in certain formats and decision contexts, provide actionable insights that help users in their decision-making. However, how to best disseminate forecast uncertainty, which factors affect successful uptake, and how forecast uncertainty transforms into better decision-making remains an ongoing topic for discussion in both academic and operational contexts. Interpreting and using visualizations of forecast uncertainty are not straightforward, and choosing how to represent uncertainty in forecast products should be dependent on the specific audience in mind. We present findings from an interactive stakeholder workshop that aimed to advance context-based insights on the usability of graphical representations of forecast uncertainty in the field of maritime operations. The workshop involved participants from various maritime sectors, including cruise tourism, fisheries, government, private forecast service providers, and research/academia. Geographically situated in Norway, the workshop employed sea spray icing as a use case for various decision scenario exercises, using both fixed probability and fixed threshold formats, supplemented with temporal ensemble diagrams. Accumulated operational expertise and characteristics of the forecast information itself, such as color coding and different forms of forecast uncertainty visualizations, were found to affect perceptions of decision-making quality. Findings can inform codesign processes of translating ensemble forecasts into usable and useful public and commercial forecast information services. The collaborative nature of the workshop facilitated knowledge sharing and coproduction between forecast providers and users. Overall, the study highlights the importance of incorporating methodological approaches that consider the complex and dynamic operational contexts of ensemble-based forecast provision, communication, and use
Consensus forecast · Coproduction · Expert elicitation · Operations research · Stakeholder · Usability · Computer Science · Engineering · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Communicating Probability Information in Weather Forecasts
Coproducing Sea Ice Predictions with Stakeholders Using Simulation
How Do Laypeople Evaluate the Degree of Certainty in a Weather Report? A Case Study of the Use of the Web Service yr.no
Visualizing Volcanic Ash Forecasts
Boater Safety
The Creation of a Research Television Studio to Test Probabilistic Hazard Information with Broadcast Meteorologists in Noaa’s Hazardous Weather Testbed
Usability factors influencing the continuance intention of disaster apps
Colours and maps for communicating natural hazards to users with and without colour vision deficiency
Making the Arctic predictable
Characterizing polar mobilities to understand the role of weather, water, ice and climate (WWIC) information
Toward valuable weather and sea-ice services for the marine Arctic
Visualizing Geospatial Information Uncertainty
Cartographic Design for Improved Decision Making
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |