The urgent green shift in Türkiye’s energy landscape
Insights from an Augmented-ARDL analysis of electricity consumption, urbanisation, economic growth, and carbon emissions
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 22419814 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Olcay BESNİLİ MEMİŞ (Atatürk University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 39 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 107543 |
| Publication date | 2026-06-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Electricity Journal (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1040-6190 • E-ISSN: 1873-6874 |
| Publisher | Elsevier BV (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.tej.2026.107543 |
| OpenAlex | W7143754051 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 64 |
This study estimates the short- and long-run elasticities of CO 2 with respect to electricity consumption, urbanisation, and income in Türkiye over 1990–2020 using an Augmented-ARDL framework. Türkiye’s fossil-based power mix links higher electricity use to higher emissions. Results indicate that a 1% increase in electricity consumption is associated with a 0.66% rise in CO 2 in the long run and 0.51% in the short run. Urbanisation reduces emissions in the short-run (−0.36%), plausibly via densification and efficiency gains, but this effect does not persist in the long run. Income is positively associated with emissions (0.54% long-run; 0.42% short-run), consistent with an energy-intensive growth trajectory. Bounds-type and augmented tests provide strong evidence of cointegration among the variables. Diagnostic checks indicate no residual serial correlation or ARCH effects, approximate normality, and parameter stability (CUSUM/CUSUMSQ within 5% bounds). The findings underscore the need to accelerate the shift toward sustainable electricity, integrate urban planning into climate policy to preserve short-run efficiency gains, and calibrate growth strategies to balance economic objectives with emissions reduction—policy directions that align with Sustainable Development Goal 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and support progress toward SDG 13 (Climate Action).
Carbon fibers · Economic analysis · Electricity · Electricity generation · Electricity system · Greenhouse gas · Renewable energy · Climate Change and Sustainable Development · Energy, Environment, Economic Growth · Environmental Impact and Sustainability
Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration
Impacts of urbanization on carbon emissions
Consumption-based carbon emissions and International trade in G7 countries
The saving and investment nexus for China
Consumption‐based carbon emissions, renewable energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in Chile
The effects of electricity consumption, economic growth, financial development and foreign direct investment on CO2 emissions in Kuwait
How economic growth, renewable electricity and natural resources contribute to CO2 emissions?
Testing for a unit root in time series regression
Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships
Ecological footprint, electricity consumption, and economic growth in China
Exploring the causal relationship between urbanization and air pollution
The determinants of CO 2 emissions in Mena countries
Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis
Dynamic linkages between globalization, human capital, and carbon dioxide emissions
Exploring the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, urbanisation and financial deepening for Turkey using the symmetric and asymmetric causality approaches
A novel analysis of consumption-based carbon footprints in China
The impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |