Analysis of photovoltaic power plant resilience under Iberian heatwaves
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 22428550 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Sara Pereira (0000-0002-9978-3847, University of Évora), Henrique Miguel Fava Rica (University of Évora), Joana Correia (0000-0002-0245-6840, University of Évora), José A Silva (0000-0002-9052-4435, University of Évora), Afonso Cavaco (0000-0001-8112-1696, University of Évora) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 18 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 110-126 |
| Publication date | 2026-12-14 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1756-8692 • E-ISSN: 1756-8706 |
| Publisher | Emerald (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1108/ijccsm-09-2025-0305 |
| OpenAlex | W7127627909 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 47 |
Purpose This study aims to quantify heatwave impacts on operational performance of Iberian photovoltaic (PV) plants in the context of climate change and examines whether typical meteorological year (TMY) expectations mask event-driven losses. It isolates performance ratio (PR) degradation, timing and recovery, providing evidence to align PV deployment planning and operation and maintenance (O&M) with a warming climate. Design/methodology/approach Three plants (Spain: 2, Portugal: 1) are analysed at hourly and daily scales across pre/during/post-heatwave windows. PVsyst simulations are produced with TMY and ERA5-Land. ERA5-Land is benchmarked against a co-located station. Resilience metrics include PR drop, time-to-trough, recovery-to-90% and energy not served (ENS). Findings Heatwaves caused sharp hourly troughs (maximum 90.44%) but modest daily losses (largest 17.59%, Zebro-2P) with recovery within 0–1 days. TMY expectations overpredicted energy in all cases; the largest gap was 553.25 kWh (36.88 kWh/kWp; 17.3% of simulated energy) at Zebro-2P; the highest relative gap was 22.34% at Ariza-2S. Research limitations/implications The data is limited to three plants and four events, with in situ meteorology at one site. Originality/value This work introduces an auditable, event-centric PR stress test using in situ-validated ERA5 denominators, contrasting TMY counterfactuals, with drop/time-to-trough/recovery metrics and an ENS design-gap to translate heatwave impacts into operationally actionable insights for resilient PV design and O&M.
Climate change · Photovoltaic system · Psychological resilience · Software deployment · Integrated Energy Systems Optimization · Photovoltaic Systems and Sustainability · Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
| Highly cited | No |
|---|