Analysis of the investment attractiveness of ecotourism in the mountainous regions of the Caucasus

Introduction. Sustainable development of mountain recreational areas requires decision-making tools capable of simultaneously considering environmental, economic, infrastructural, and social factors affecting investment performance. Existing approaches usually emphasize either financial evaluation or environmental assessment, while integrated methods that combine these components within a single analytical framework remain insufficiently developed for mountain tourism destinations. This study addresses this gap by proposing a comprehensive methodology for evaluating the investment potential of ecological tourism areas based on a multicriteria assessment of natural, infrastructural, environmental, and economic characteristics. Methods. The study was carried out using statistical analysis, linear normalization of heterogeneous indicators, correlation analysis, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Quantitative information describing transport accessibility, tourism infrastructure, environmental conditions, investment activity, engineering facilities, and tourism resources was collected for several mountain territories of the North Caucasus. The integrated investment attractiveness index was calculated by weighted aggregation of normalized criteria. Model robustness was further evaluated through sensitivity analysis by varying criterion weights within ±10%, followed by comparative ranking of the investigated territories and scenario modeling of infrastructure development. Results. The proposed methodology demonstrated stable and consistent performance during the assessment process. The integrated investment attractiveness index ranged from 0.437 to 0.842 with an average value of 0.661. Transport accessibility, engineering infrastructure, and environmental quality jointly contributed more than half of the overall integrated assessment. Strong positive correlations were identified between accommodation capacity and tourist flow (r = 0.84), as well as between road density and investment volume (r = 0.79). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the developed model, with the rank correlation coefficient remaining above 0.95 under all tested scenarios. Scenario simulations also indicated that simultaneous improvement of transport infrastructure, accommodation capacity, and engineering facilities produced substantially greater increases in the integrated index than isolated infrastructure measures. Conclusions. The developed multicriteria methodology provides a reliable tool for comparative assessment of investment attractiveness in mountain ecological tourism areas and supports objective prioritization of development projects. The obtained results demonstrate that infrastructure development remains the key prerequisite for effective utilization of natural tourism resources, while environmental advantages alone cannot ensure high investment attractiveness. The proposed approach can be applied in regional planning, investment project evaluation, and the development of sustainable tourism strategies, and may be adapted for other mountain regions with similar environmental and socio-economic conditions.

Analytic hierarchy process · Attractiveness · Recreation · Tourism · Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research · Geotourism and Geoheritage Conservation · Wildlife-Road Interactions and Conservation