Grains of change

While the biases inherent in historical disaster records are widely acknowledged, many reconstructions of past climate still rely on them.The nature and extent of these disaster records still remain insufficiently explored.This study addresses this question by examining the middle Yangtze region and reconsidering disaster reporting through the lens of agrarian transformation.From the Ming to the late Qing periods, the transition from early maturing to late-maturing rice cultivation and the concurrent expansion of dry-season crops produced two major consequences.First, it redefines the meaning and measurement of agricultural disasters, as shifting cropping systems altered both the frequency and the framing of reported calamities.Second, it highlights that volatile monsoon climates combined with the region's evolving water landscapes to heighten uncertainty for farmers.Despite intensified labour and adaptive efforts aimed at stability, increasing crop rotations and ecological complexity narrowed their capacity for mitigation, encouraged pest proliferation and ultimately deepened the risk of crop failure.

Agriculture · Crop Management · Cropping · Risk management · Yangtze river · Chinese history and philosophy · Historical Economic and Social Studies · Tree-ring climate responses