Theoretical exploration and empirical verification on the spatial coupling of urban shrinkage and aging

Bibliographic Data

ID22432958
AuthorsHong Luo (0000-0002-7838-808X, Southwest University), Pingjun Sun (0000-0003-2924-786X, Southwest University, corresponding author), Naigang Cao (Southwest University), Yihao Jiang (Southwest University), Zuo Li (Southwest University), Guiquan Sun (0000-0003-2260-7092)
Year2026
Publication date2026-04-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Urban Management (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2226-5856 • E-ISSN: 2589-0360
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.jum.2026.04.008
OpenAlexW7155627451
LanguageEN
References cited30

Urban shrinkage and aging exhibit complex interactions in population spatial redistribution. However, existing studies largely remain descriptive and correlation-oriented, and lack a systematic theory of spatial coupling and mechanism analysis. This study constructs a spatial coupling theoretical framework centered on the direct and indirect effects of young workforce relocation. Using data from 142 county-level units in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle of China from 2010 to 2020, the study employs bivariate LISA and OPGD models to analyze and verify the spatial coupling process and mechanisms. The results indicate that: (1) Urban shrinkage and aging theoretically constitute a reinforced bidirectional spatial coupling mechanism through the direct relocation of the young workforce and its indirect socioeconomic and functional impacts. (2) Empirically, under the “core-periphery” pattern, the two processes intensify synchronously, with a Moran's I of 0.558, significant High-High and Low-Low clustering, and bidirectional factor explanatory power exceeding 0.3, indicating a significant spatial coupling effect. (3) Mechanism analysis further confirms that young workforce relocation represents the core logic driving coupling evolution. This coupling process is simultaneously shaped by population structure heterogeneity, regional labor division, public service disparities, and ancestral culture. This study advances theoretical understanding of urban shrinkage-aging interactions and offers a new analytical perspective for integrated governance. • Theoretical framework for bidirectional coupling of urban shrinkage and aging. • Young workforce relocation drives the spatial coupling of urban shrinkage and aging. • Bivariate LISA and OPGD models are used to empirically test spatial coupling. • Shrinkage and aging co-intensify, spatially coupled in core-periphery structure. • Spatial coupling is driven by demographic heterogeneity, labor division, public service, and ancestral culture.

Empirical research · Shrinkage · Land Use and Ecosystem Services · Urban, Neighborhood, and Segregation Studies · Urbanization and City Planning

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