Geopolitical risk, market sentiment, and energy dependence

Evidence from Asean stock markets

Bibliographic Data

ID22435556
AuthorsSihabudin Sihabudin (University of Singaperbangsa Karawang, corresponding author), Rengga Madya Pranata (0000-0001-6309-8402, University of Singaperbangsa Karawang), Asep Jamaludin (0000-0002-7213-6295, University of Singaperbangsa Karawang), Nandang Nandang (University of Singaperbangsa Karawang), Wanta Wanta (University of Singaperbangsa Karawang)
Year2026
Volume14
Pages103231
Publication date2026-12-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueSocial Sciences & Humanities Open (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2590-2911 • E-ISSN: 2590-2911
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.ssaho.2026.103231
OpenAlexW7167937420
LanguageEN
References cited52

This study investigates how investor sentiment is reflected in market prices in ASEAN stock markets by incorporating geopolitical risk and energy import dependency as conditioning factors. Using monthly data from five ASEAN member countries, the study employs a cross-country panel regression model with fixed effects and interaction terms. The results show that geopolitical risk significantly moderates the transmission of investor sentiment into stock returns. This moderating effect is structurally asymmetric across economies with different levels of energy import dependency. Specifically, heightened geopolitical risk amplifies the impact of investor sentiment on asset pricing in net energy-exporting countries, while weakening the sentiment–return relationship in energy-import-dependent markets.

Energy market · Geopolitics · Stock market · Financial Markets and Investment Strategies · Global Energy Security and Policy · Market Dynamics and Volatility

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Open DOIOpen Access