Effect of green bond, credit default swap, and geopolitical risk on environmental degradation

Sectoral evidence from China

Bibliographic Data

ID22435573
AuthorsMustafa Tevfik Kartal (0000-0001-8038-8241, European University of Lefke, corresponding author), Galib Gafarli (0000-0002-2292-2896, Baku State University), Dilvin Taşkın (Khazar University), Talat Ulussever (0000-0002-5673-1238, Bogaziçi University)
Year2026
Volume14
Pages103230
Publication date2026-12-01
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueSocial Sciences & Humanities Open (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2590-2911 • E-ISSN: 2590-2911
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.ssaho.2026.103230
OpenAlexW7169608333
LanguageEN
References cited39

Countries have been dealing with environmental issues and searching for solutions. By considering China's leading position among the highest carbon dioxide (CO 2 )-emitting countries, as well as the lack of sectoral examination, this study uncovers the interrelationships among green bonds (GBs), credit default swap (CDS) spreads, geopolitical risk (GPR), and CO 2 emissions in China. In doing this, the study considers main sectors (i.e., transport, industry, and power) and total CO 2 emissions to consider sectoral heterogeneity, uses monthly data from 2019/1 to 2026/2, and applies the Wavelet Local Multiple Correlation (WLMC) method. The study empirically reveals that (i) in bi-variate analysis, GB, CDS, and GPR have mixed association with sectoral CO 2 emissions across terms; (ii) in multivariate analysis, GB, CDS, and GPR have a positive association with sectoral and total CO 2 emissions; (iii) at the sectoral level, GPR and CDS have a negative association with power sector and total CO 2 emissions across short-term and medium-term. Also, GB has a mixed association with sectoral and total CO 2 emissions across the medium-term; (iv) the dominant variable varies across sectors and terms, where CDS and GB are leading at short-term and long-term, while CDS and GPR are pioneering in medium-term; (v) the outcomes, where dominance of effective factors is searched, do not differ across aggregated and disaggregated level CO 2 emissions. Thus, empirical outcomes highlight the differentiating association of the factors with sectoral and total CO 2 emissions, whereas the dominance of the factors is stable across sectoral and total CO 2 emissions. Accordingly, relying on the empirical findings, the study discusses various policy options for Chinese policymakers in decarbonizing economic sectors.

China · Credit risk · Default Risk · Geopolitics · Sustainability · Energy, Environment, Economic Growth · Market Dynamics and Volatility · Sustainable Finance and Green Bonds

Tools

Open DOIOpen Access