Damming the international order
The Gerd and Ilisu dams as challenges to international water law and regional security
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 22436258 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Khaled Mohammad Khwaileh (0000-0001-6626-5675, College of Law, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 8 |
| Publication date | 2026-07-15 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Frontiers in Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2673-3145 • E-ISSN: 2673-3145 |
| Publisher | Frontiers Media SA (PUBLISHER • CH) |
| DOI | 10.3389/fpos.2026.1756778 |
| OpenAlex | W7168372624 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 34 |
Transboundary water disputes in the MENA region are increasingly shaped by climate-driven scarcity, large-scale dams, and contested regional orders. Comparing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and Turkey’s Ilisu dam, this article explains how outcomes stem from international water law (IWL), hydrological vulnerability, and asymmetric power. Informed by hydro-hegemony theory, the paper shows IWL functions primarily as legitimizing language rather than an automatic constraint. The cases are structurally asymmetric. Ilısu reflects upstream hydro-hehegemonic consolidation, intensifying downstream vulnerability in a weakly institutionalized basin. Conversely, GERD reflects a counter-hegemonic challenge to a historically downstream-favored Nile order, producing securitized contestation. This is exemplified by a volatile diplomatic discourse—where Ethiopian officials oscillate between asserting a sovereign right to commodify “surplus” water and immediately retracting such claims—underscoring the friction between Ethiopia’s pursuit of hydro-autonomy and downstream legal expectations. Finally, the findings suggest third-party facilitation requires perceived impartiality and credibility. The inability of the African Union and the UN Security Council (UNSC) to resolve the GERD dispute in 2020 and 2021 highlights severe institutional limitations. Mirroring broader UN failures to resolve explicit threats to global security, such as the Gaza war, this exposes the current ineffectiveness of international organizations in restoring peace. Consequently, the paper cautions against reflexive securitization: UNSC engagement cannot substitute for functional basin governance or serve as a reliable default Chapter VII pathway.
Corporate governance · Disarmament · European union · International law · International waters · Mirroring · Sovereignty · Hydropower, Displacement, Environmental Impact · Transboundary Water Resource Management · Water Governance and Infrastructure
Historical context of international trade in the Arab region
The long shadow of the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement
Bridges Over Water
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile
Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria
Hydro-hegemony – a framework for analysis of trans-boundary water conflicts
Conflict and cooperation along international waterways
Transboundary water interaction I
Power Asymmetry and Negotiations in International River Basins
Climate Change, Conflict and Development in Sudan
| Highly cited | No |
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