The Hazards of Predicting Divorce Without Crossvalidation
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 2282209 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Richard E Heyman (0000-0002-5365-0037, State University of New York, corresponding author), Amy M Smith Slep (0000-0002-6321-1740) |
| Year | 2001 |
| Volume | 63 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 473-479 |
| Publication date | 2001-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Marriage and the Family (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-2445 • E-ISSN: 1741-3737 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/j.1741-3737.2001.00473.x |
| PMID | 17066126 |
| PMCID | PMC1622921 |
| OpenAlex | W2097856521 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 17 |
| References cited | 26 |
Divorce prediction studies (e.g., Gottman, Coan, Carrere, & Swanson, 1998) suggest that couples' eventual divorce can be very accurately predicted from a number of different variables. Recent attention to these studies has failed to consider the need to crossvalidate prediction equations and to consider the prevalence of divorce in the population. We analyze archival data to demonstrate that accuracy and predictive value drops precipitously during crossvalidation. We conclude that results of studies without crossvalidation analyses should be interpreted with extreme caution, no matter how impressive the initial results appear to be
Econometrics · Population · Predictive value · Sociology · Statistics · Attachment and Relationship Dynamics · Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences · Demography · Family Dynamics and Relationships · Mathematics · Medicine · Psychology
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| Unique citing works | 17 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,71 |
| Citation span | 2002 - 2025 (24) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 17 |