Bounding Causes of Effects With Mediators
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 2331074 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Philip Dawid (0000-0002-7410-6882, University of Cambridge), Michael Humphreys (0000-0001-7029-2326, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States), Monica Musio (0000-0003-4478-1737, University of Cagliari) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 53 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 28-56 |
| Publication date | 2024-02-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Sociological Methods & Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0049-1241 • E-ISSN: 1552-8294 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/00491241211036161 |
| OpenAlex | W2953926825 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 18 |
Suppose X and Y are binary exposure and outcome variables, and we have full knowledge of the distribution of Y, given application of X. We are interested in assessing whether an outcome in some case is due to the exposure. This 'probability of causation' is of interest in comparative historical analysis where scholars use process tracing approaches to learn about causes of outcomes for single units by observing events along a causal path. The probability of causation is typically not identified, but bounds can be placed on it. Here, we provide a full characterization of the bounds that can be achieved in the ideal case that X and Y are connected by a causal chain of complete mediators, and we know the probabilistic structure of the full chain. Our results are largely negative. We show that, even in these very favorable conditions, the gains from positive evidence on mediators is modest
Bounding overwatch · Causality (physics) · Causation · Combinatorics · Discrete mathematics · Distribution (mathematics) · Epistemology · Mathematical economics · Outcome (game theory) · Physics · Probabilistic logic · Sequence (biology) · Set (abstract data type) · Statistics · Advanced Causal Inference Techniques · Artificial Intelligence · Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference · Computer Science · Mathematics · Qualitative Comparative Analysis Research
Theory-based impact evaluation
A general approach to causal mediation analysis.
Probabilities Of Causation
Understanding the Past
Understanding Process Tracing
The Structure of Causal Chains
Causes of Effects and Effects of Causes
Pathway Analysis and the Search for Causal Mechanisms
The Logic of Process Tracing Tests in the Social Sciences
States and Social Revolutions
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,2 |
| Citation span | 2021 - 2021 (1) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |