Assessing the Impact of the Great Recession on the Transition to Adulthood
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 2331119 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Guanglei Hong (0000-0002-8254-4655, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA, corresponding author), Ha-Joon Chung (0000-0001-7624-2549, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 53 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 1453-1490 |
| Publication date | 2024-08-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Sociological Methods & Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0049-1241 • E-ISSN: 1552-8294 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/00491241221113871 |
| OpenAlex | W4288069190 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 59 |
The impact of a major historical event on child and youth development has been of great interest in the study of the life course. This study is focused on assessing the causal effect of the Great Recession on youth disconnection from school and work. Building on the insights offered by the age-period-cohort research, econometric methods, and developmental psychology, we innovatively develop a causal inference strategy that takes advantage of the multiple successive birth cohorts in the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1997. The causal effect of the Great Recession is defined in terms of counterfactual developmental trajectories and can be identified under the assumption of short-term stable differences between the birth cohorts in the absence of the Great Recession. A meta-analysis aggregates the estimated effects over six between-cohort comparisons. Furthermore, we conduct a sensitivity analysis to assess the potential consequences if the identification assumption is violated. The findings contribute new evidence on how precipitous and pervasive economic hardship may disrupt youth development by gender and class of origin
Causal inference · Cohort · Cohort study · Counterfactual thinking · Demographic economics · Developmental psychology · Econometrics · Economics · Life course approach · Macroeconomics · Millennium Cohort Study (United States) · National Child Development Study · Recession · Birth, Development, and Health · Health disparities and outcomes · Intergenerational and Educational Inequality Studies · Medicine · Psychology · Social Psychology
Diverging Pathways
Cohort Analysis
The Precariat
Comparing Personal Trajectories and Drawing Causal Inferences from Longitudinal Data
Tests for linkage of multiple cohorts in an accelerated longitudinal design.
The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy
Young people and the Great Recession
Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models
The Statistical Implications of a System of Simultaneous Equations
Some Thoughts on the Distribution of Earnings 1
The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession
Bayesian Inference for Causal Effects
Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error
Coming of Age in the Other America
Young People's Development and the Great Recession
Causality in a Social World
Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys
Estimating Average and Local Average Treatment Effects of Education when Compulsory Schooling Laws Really Matter
Natural and Quasi-Experiments in Economics
Sleeper effects? in development
Financial Challenges in Emerging Adulthood and Students’ Decisions to Stop Out of College
Turning Point for a Turning Point
Analyzing Age-Period-Cohort Data
Cumulative Advantage as a Mechanism for Inequality
The Criminal Career Paradigm
Cohort Analysis’ Unholy Quest
How Do We Study “What Happens Next”
Pathways to Adulthood in Changing Societies
Constraints in Random Effects Age-Period-Cohort Models
A Mixed Models Approach to the Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Repeated Cross-Section Surveys, with an Application to Data on Trends in Verbal Test Scores
The Life Course as Developmental Theory
Emerging adulthood
Socioeconomic Status and Child Development
Time, Human Agency, and Social Change
Young Disadvantaged Men
Wealth Disparities Before and After the Great Recession
Expanding Enrollments and Contracting State Budgets
The Effects of the Great Recession on Family Structure and Fertility
No Country for Young Men
Cohort Analysts' Futile Quest
Some Methodological Issues in Cohort Analysis of Archival Data
The Cohort as a Concept in the Study of Social Change
The impossibility of separating age, period and cohort effects
The Evolution of Class Inequality in Higher Education
Use of the nonequivalent control group design when subjects are growing
Age-Period-Cohort analysis
When Can Age, Period, and Cohort be Separated
Family-related Disparities in College Enrollment across the Great Recession
A Rolling Panel Model of Cohort, Period, and Aging Effects for the Analysis of the General Social Survey
A Mechanism-Based Approach to the Identification of Age-Period-Cohort Models
Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Repeated Cross-Section Surveys
The Far-Reaching Impact of Job Loss and Unemployment
The Birth Lottery of History
Social Class, Parental Encouragement, and Educational Aspirations
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2025 - 2025 (1) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |