Modelling the anthropocene

In an age concerned with the future trajectory of the human-Earth system, computer modelling has come to dominate anthropocene research. Modelling has been pursued owing to the method’s capacity for synthesis, quantification, and easy integration with policy. This essay defends conventional historical methods as a means of studying the anthropocene. It argues against the growing authority of modelling by drawing on philosopher Patrick Gardiner’s The Nature of Historical Explanation (1952), which defends history against scientism while also finding affinities. Models deal in generalities and cannot grasp how events unfold in specific detail. The author does not reject modelling so much as call for analytical pluralism.

Anthropocene · GRASP · Scientism · Trajectory · Ecocriticism and Environmental Literature · Posthumanist Ethics and Activism · Sustainability and Climate Change Governance

• Introduction

  Open Access•Thomas Turnbull, Adam Wickberg•The Anthropocene Review•2026

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• The Function of General Laws in History

  Carl G Hempel•The Journal of Philosophy•1942

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• The Essential Tension

  Thomas S Kuhn, Thomas Kühn•The Essential Tension•1977

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• Toward Cliodynamics – an Analytical, Predictive Science of History

  Open Access•Peter Turchin•Cliodynamics The Journal of…•2011

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• The institutional context of science, models, and policy

  Open Access•Brian Wynne•Policy Sciences•1984

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• The Economics of Slavery in the Ante Bellum South

  Alfred H Conrad, John R Meyer•Journal of Political Economy•1958

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• The technofossil record of humans

  Open Access•J Zalasiewicz, Mark Williams et al.•The Anthropocene Review•2014

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• Closing the loop

  Open Access•Jonathan F Donges, Rainer Winkelmann et al.•The Anthropocene Review•2017

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• From the History of Science to Geoanthropology

  Joachim Renn, Jürgen Renn•Isis•2022

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