The cooling paradox
Rising air conditioner adoption in Bangladesh as a driver of energy insecurity and compounding climate risk
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 23311986 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Md Shahinur Rahman (0000-0001-9430-2381, Khulna University, corresponding author), Dana Sikder (Khulna University), Khadizatul Kobra (0000-0001-6059-6158, Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 139 |
| Pages | 104886 |
| Publication date | 2026-09-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Energy Research & Social Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2214-6296 • E-ISSN: 2214-6326 |
| Publisher | Elsevier BV (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104886 |
| OpenAlex | W7171874827 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 19 |
Bangladesh's rapidly expanding air conditioning sector presents a structural paradox: adoption driven by climate necessity simultaneously deepens the energy insecurity and emission trajectories that climate adaptation is meant to relieve. This paper examines this paradox as a compound policy problem spanning energy security, climate risk, and distributive justice. Drawing on four data streams: Bangladesh National Cooling Plan, Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2022, Power Development Board's daily electricity dataset, and supplementary institutional sources, three illustrative scenario pathways are developed to 2040. Under business-as-usual conditions, air-conditioning-attributable electricity demand reaches approximately 60,474 GWh by 2040, equivalent to 56% of current national generation, resulting in 36.3 Mt. of grid carbon-dioxide emissions. Refrigerant emissions increase from 1571 to 42,476 kilotonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2040, resulting in combined cooling-sector emissions equal to 58% of Bangladesh's current national total. An accelerated policy scenario combining mandatory efficiency standards, mandatory inverter adoption, and low global warming potential refrigerant transition reduces combined emissions by approximately 97% relative to business-as-usual. The paper also shows that Bangladesh's Solar Home Systems program has not decarbonized the national grid, that cooling growth is structurally incompatible with Sustainable Development Goal 7, and that cooling access concentrates among affluent households while costs fall disproportionately on approximately 21% of the population, at high risk from inadequate cooling. Refrigerant transition emerges as the highest-return intervention and 2026–2030 as the critical window before infrastructure choices lock in. Policy implications span mandatory efficiency enforcement, accelerated refrigerant transition, passive cooling standards, and equity-centered access programs for heat-vulnerable populations.
Air conditioning · Climate change · Climate Finance · Efficient energy use · Electricity · Energy policy · Global warming · Greenhouse gas · Refrigerant · Building Energy and Comfort Optimization · Energy and Environment Impacts · Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming
Understanding thermal justice and systemic cooling poverty from the margins
Future cooling gap in shared socioeconomic pathways
Heat-health vulnerabilities in the climate change context—comparing risk profiles between indoor and outdoor workers in developing country settings
Model for empowering rural poor through renewable energy technologies in Bangladesh
| Highly cited | No |
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