Global rise in human infectious disease outbreaks

Bibliographic Data

ID23348293
AuthorsKatherine Smith (0000-0001-7471-0708, Brown University, corresponding author), Katherine F Smith (Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Brown University, 80 Waterman St., Box G-W, Providence, RI 02912, USA), Michael Goldberg (0000-0003-1039-6865, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Brown University, 80 Waterman St., Box G-W, Providence, RI 02912, USA), Michael E Goldberg (0000-0002-0728-2464, Brown University), Samantha R Rosenthal (0000-0001-6719-1700, Brown University), Samantha Rosenthal (Department of Epidemiology, Brown University, Box G-S121-2, 121 South Main St., Providence, RI 02912, USA), Lynn Carlson (Brown University), Jane Chen (0000-0003-3232-2613, Brown University), Cici Chen (Brown University), Sohini Ramachandran (0000-0002-9588-7964, Brown University)
Year2014
Volume11
Issue101
Pages20140950
Publication date2014-12-06
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of The Royal Society Interface (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1742-5689 • E-ISSN: 1742-5662
PublisherThe Royal Society (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1098/rsif.2014.0950
PMID25401184
OpenAlexW2029262537
LanguageEN
Citations received69
References cited14

To characterize the change in frequency of infectious disease outbreaks over time worldwide, we encoded and analysed a novel 33-year dataset (1980–2013) of 12 102 outbreaks of 215 human infectious diseases, comprising more than 44 million cases occuring in 219 nations. We merged these records with ecological characteristics of the causal pathogens to examine global temporal trends in the total number of outbreaks, disease richness (number of unique diseases), disease diversity (richness and outbreak evenness) and per capita cases. Bacteria, viruses, zoonotic diseases (originating in animals) and those caused by pathogens transmitted by vector hosts were responsible for the majority of outbreaks in our dataset. After controlling for disease surveillance, communications, geography and host availability, we find the total number and diversity of outbreaks, and richness of causal diseases increased significantly since 1980 ( p p per capita cases decrease significantly ( p = 0.005). Temporal trends in outbreaks differ based on the causal pathogen's taxonomy, host requirements and transmission mode. We discuss our preliminary findings in the context of global disease emergence and surveillance.

Biodiversity · Biology · Context (archaeology) · Disease · Environmental health · Geography · Infectious disease (medical specialty) · Outbreak · Pathology · Per capita · Population · Species richness · Transmission (telecommunications) · Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology · Computer Science · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Ecology · Medicine · Virology · Zoonotic diseases and public health