Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk
Datos Bibliográficos
| ID | 23348943 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Colin J Carlson (0000-0001-6960-8434, Georgetown University, autor de correspondencia), Gregory F Albery (0000-0001-6260-2662, Georgetown University, autor de correspondencia), Cory Merow (0000-0003-0561-053X, University of Connecticut), Christopher H Trisos (0000-0002-5854-1489, University of Cape Town), Casey M Zipfel (0000-0002-7903-6318, Georgetown University), EVAN A ESKEW (0000-0002-1153-5356, EcoHealth Alliance), Kevin J Olival (0000-0003-3211-1875, EcoHealth Alliance), Noam Ross (0000-0002-2136-0000, EcoHealth Alliance), Shweta Bansal (0000-0002-1740-5421, Georgetown University) |
| Año | 2022 |
| Volumen | 607 |
| Número | 7919 |
| Páginas | 555-562 |
| Fecha de publicación | 2022-07-21 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sí |
| Open Access | Sí |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Revista | Nature (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores de la revista | ISSN: 0028-0836 • E-ISSN: 1476-4687 |
| Editorial | Springer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41586-022-04788-w |
| PMID | 35483403 |
| OpenAlex | W4225013427 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citas recibidas | 97 |
| Referencias citadas | 78 |
At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals1,2. However, changes in climate and land use will lead to opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically isolated species of wildlife3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover—a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographical model of the mammal–virus network, and projections of geographical range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate-change and land-use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, causing the cross-species transmission of their associated viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Owing to their unique dispersal ability, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Notably, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the twenty-first century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking the range shifts of species, especially in tropical regions that contain the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming. Changes in climate and land use will lead to species aggregating in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, driving the cross-species transmission of animal-associated viruses.
Biodiversity · Biological dispersal · Biology · Climate change · Environmental health · Geography · Mammal · Population · Range (aeronautics) · Spillover effect · Transmission (telecommunications) · Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology · Ecology · Viral Infections and Vectors · Zoonotic diseases and public health
Prevalence of long Covid decreases for increasing Covid-19 vaccine uptake
Emerging Infectious Diseases at the Intersections of Human, Animal, and Environmental Health
Implications of Zoonoses From Hunting and Use of Wildlife in North American Arctic and Boreal Biomes
Preparing international cooperation on pandemic prevention for the Anthropocene
Association between Global Monkeypox Cases and Meteorological Factors
Uganda Mountain Community Health System—Perspectives and Capacities towards Emerging Infectious Disease Surveillance
Pandemias, ecologia e saúde e no Antropoceno
No Planet B
Mapping Racial Capitalism
Global polycrisis
Implementing Environmental Communication Strategy Towards Climate Change Through Social Media in Indonesia
Enhancing the climate resilience of protected area networks in drylands
The imperative for actions to protect and promote human health within Earth-system boundaries
Living in an Age of Pandemics—From Covid-19 to Monkeypox, Polio, and Disease X
Climate change and pandemics
LGBTQ College student health and wellbeing at the onset of the pandemic
The Factors and Relationships Influencing Forest Hiking Exercise Characteristics after Covid-19 Occurrence
Slow-lived birds and bats carry higher pathogen loads
Cost-effective expansion of protected areas reduces global zoonotic risk and biodiversity loss
Small mammals at the edge of deforestation in Cambodia
Potential impacts of pandemics on global warming, agricultural production, and biodiversity loss
Epidemics and climate change
Rethinking the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis across 214 countries
Maritime transportation and people mobility in the early diffusion of Covid-19 in Croatia
Mapping the mortality niche of chronic lower respiratory diseases complicated by respiratory failure
The role of the university in recovering from Covid-19 and preparing for future crises—perspectives and experiences from Sunway University, Malaysia
A decade of China’s health silk road
The hidden inequality
Mitigating the effects of climate change on human health with vaccines and vaccinations
A call to ban the sale of tobacco products
Global lessons for strengthening breastfeeding as a key pillar of food security
Unveiling the hidden threats
A GIS-Based Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Relationship between the Outbreak of Covid-19, Delta Variant and Construction in Sydney and Melbourne
Assessing the self-efficacy of village clerks for dealing with disasters triggered by natural hazards and public health emergencies in Taiwan
Historical trends demonstrate a pattern of increasingly frequent and severe spillover events of high-consequence zoonotic viruses
National Covid-19 preparedness and response plans
Addressing the challenges of implementing evidence-based prioritisation in global health
Embedding risk monitoring in infectious disease surveillance for timely and effective outbreak prevention and control
Exploring the burden of cholera in the WHO African region
Trends in public health emergencies in the WHO African Region
Improving risk analysis of the environmental drivers of the spillover, emergence/re-emergence and spread of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus, Marburg virus and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the East Africa Region
Impacts of climate change-related human migration on infectious diseases
Education outcomes in the era of global climate change
Subsidiarity in tourism and travel circuits in the face of climate crisis
Küresel Gıda Güvenliği Endeksi Kapsamında Covid-19 Pandemisinin Türkiye’nin Gıda Güvenliğine Yönelik Etkisi
A reading of Alexander Bogdanov in times of crisis
Understanding the Legacy of Infectious Diseases
Who wants to remember Covid-19? Social identification and collective remembering-imagining system predict support for pandemic commemorations
Long Social Distancing
Ecological footprint, electricity consumption, and economic growth in China
Análisis de causas de las causas de futuras pandemias
Predicting future Human-Wildlife conflict Zones
Preparing for the Next Pandemic
Combined and delayed impacts of epidemics and extreme weather on urban mobility recovery
Future urban ecological land transition and its implications for high-heat exposure in China
The impact of climate policy uncertainty on urban climate risk
Externalities and norms in the context of a novel virus
Contesting public forgetting
Realist climate action
Facilitating the transition to net zero’ and institutional change in the Bank of England
Pandemics past
Identifying spatial heterogeneity of Covid-19 transmission clusters and their built-environment features at the neighbourhood scale
Development of the inventory of biotic climate literacy (IBCL)
Allotment gardens
Quantifying China's ecological assets
Macroecological approaches for the prediction of zoonotic disease risk
Quantifying the human cost of global warming
Intersections of climate change, migration, and health
Learning from Covid-19
Three challenges of social protection in sub‐Saharan Africa
Panarchy theory for convergence
A time of decline
A framework for managing infectious diseases in rural areas in low- and middle-income countries in the face of climate change—East Africa as a case study
Pandemic potential of the Nipah virus and public health strategies adopted during outbreaks
Gaps and opportunities for data systems and economics to support priority setting for climate-sensitive infectious diseases in sub-Saharan Africa
Global emergence of Langya virus
Assessing public health preparedness and response in the European Union- a review of regional simulation exercises and after action reviews
Low Level of Concern Among European Society About Zoonotic Diseases
International Collaboration is the Only Way to Protect Ourselves from the Next Pandemic
Spatial examination of social and environmental drivers of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (Mers-CoV) across Kenya
Present and Future
Adna evidence of the introduction of infectious diseases in the Americas
Covid-19 vaccination rates and neighbourhoods
Agenda 2030 e os objetivos de desenvolvimento sustentável para a promoção dos territórios saudáveis
A Covid-19 em meio a uma “tempestade perfeita” no capitalismo neoliberal
Big data insights into urban park use in the pandemic
Mapping the Future of Migration and Climate Change Science
Evaluating the climate change adaptation of urban communities in Beijing, China
Incorporating a One Health Approach Into the Study of Environmental Crimes and Harms
A “lifeline out of the Covid ‐19 crisis”? An ecofeminist critique of the European Green Deal
Learning Green Social Work in Global Disaster Contexts
CSP starts a Thematic Section dedicated to the Amazon
CSP inicia Espacio Temático dedicado a la Amazonía
CSP inicia Espaço Temático dedicado à Amazônia
A pyramid of human ecology of disease for pandemic preparedness
Measuring Asian Social Media Sentiments Toward Bat Exploitation
Child and adolescent foraging
Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas
Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6
Global trends in emerging infectious diseases
PanTHERIA: a species‐level database of life history, ecology, and geography of extant and recently extinct mammals
Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming
Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions
Biodiversity redistribution under climate change
Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100
Pathways to zoonotic spillover
Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases
WorldClim 2
Regularization Paths for Generalized Linear Models via Coordinate Descent
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
Cross-Species Pathogen Transmission and Disease Emergence in Primates
Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
The Shared Socio-economic Pathways
The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
Humans and biodiversity
| Obras citantes distintas | 97 |
|---|---|
| Citas por año | 19,4 |
| Intervalo de citas | 2021 - 2026 (6) |
| Velocidad de citación | current |
| Altamente citado | No |
| Tipos de cita | Neutras: 88 |