The Structure of Economic Modeling of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change
Grafting Gross Underestimation of Risk onto Already Narrow Science Models
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 23362000 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Nicholas Stern (London School of Economics and Political Science, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2013 |
| Volume | 51 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 838-859 |
| Publication date | 2013-09-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Economic Literature (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0515 • E-ISSN: 1547-1101 |
| Publisher | American Economic Association (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1257/jel.51.3.838 |
| OpenAlex | W2166070661 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 91 |
| References cited | 78 |
Scientists describe the scale of the risks from unmanaged climate change as potentially immense. However, the scientific models, because they omit key factors that are hard to capture precisely, appear to substantially underestimate these risks. Many economic models add further gross underassessment of risk because the assumptions built into the economic modeling on growth, damages and risks, come close to assuming directly that the impacts and costs will be modest and close to excluding the possibility of catastrophic outcomes. A new generation of models is needed in all three of climate science, impact and economics with a still stronger focus on lives and livelihoods, including the risks of large-scale migration and conflicts. (JEL C51, Q54, Q58)
Actuarial science · Agriculture · Climate change · Climate model · Damages · Economic model · Economic risk · Economics · Geography · Livelihood · Macroeconomics · Natural resource economics · Political science · Scale (ratio) · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Ecology · Global Energy and Sustainability Research · Sustainable Development and Environmental Policy
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| Unique citing works | 91 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 6,5 |
| Citation span | 2012 - 2026 (15) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 76 |