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Resumo

Predicting future sociopolitical developments requires a different strategy than projecting existing trends into the future. Projection assumes stability in the boundary conditions under which systems operate, whereas predicting the future requires some understanding of the structure and function of the types of entities under consideration. States are organized to coordinate communication and effort among their component parts and to facilitate communication and coordination with other systems. Although organizational properties of states must accomplish these tasks, an entity at the global scale, with no external systems, would not be expected to be organized this way. Thus, one may question the logic of projecting trends in the size and number of states to anticipate the date at which another type of entity may appear.

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