Too Hot to Work? Exploring the Average and Seasonal Effects of Temperature Variability in the Philippine Labour Market

Bibliographic Data

ID24033337
AuthorsPaolo R Magnata (0009-0006-2499-4080, Delft University of Technology), Maire Carroline Magante (0000-0001-9008-118X, Ateneo de Manila University)
Year2026
Publication date2026-08-18
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueMillennial Asia (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2321-7081 • E-ISSN: 0976-3996
PublisherSAGE Publications (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1177/09763996261452356
LanguageEN
References cited27

Using temperature and employment data covering 16 regions from Q3 2003 to Q1 2022, this study examined the average and seasonal effects of temperature on year-on-year employment growth in the Philippines. Average effects are insignificant, while seasonal effects are heterogeneous. During the dry and cool season (Q1), higher temperatures are associated with a temporary 0.0397% increase in employment growth. In contrast, higher temperatures in the dry and hot season (Q2) are associated with a persistent decrease of 0.1361%, while higher temperatures during the wet and hot season (Q3) are associated with a persistent increase of 0.1450%, which is primarily driven by the services sector. These relationships attenuate and become statistically insignificant once time-fixed effects are included, suggesting that labour market responses are driven primarily by large-scale climatic fluctuations rather than localized weather variation.

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