Geopolitical fragmentation and the green energy transition
Systemic reconfiguration across energy and critical metal markets
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 24215316 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Savaş Tarkun (0000-0002-2684-184X), Şerife Akıncı Tok (0000-0002-2505-1985) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 101 |
| Pages | 103241 |
| Publication date | 2026-12-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Global Environmental Change (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0959-3780 • E-ISSN: 1872-9495 |
| Publisher | Elsevier BV (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103241 |
| OpenAlex | W7220691965 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 42 |
The global energy transition is unfolding within an increasingly fragmented geopolitical environment in which energy security, climate policy uncertainty, and critical mineral dependence interact. This study examines whether upward and downward movements in geopolitical risk generate structurally different patterns of shock transmission across energy and transition-metal markets. Using monthly data from June 2012 to September 2025, we apply a component-based asymmetric TVP-VAR connectedness framework to the Energy Transition Metals Index, the aggregate Energy Index, Climate Policy Uncertainty, and disaggregated geopolitical risk categories. The positive and negative components are estimated as separate systems and interpreted on a variable-specific basis rather than as mechanically uniform stress and relaxation states. The findings show that connectedness is stronger in the upward-movement system than in the downward-movement system, with total connectedness reaching approximately 12.6% compared with 11.3%. The Energy Transition Metals Index is the largest net receiver in both systems, while geopolitical risk categories particularly war escalation, terrorist threats, and terrorist acts serve as prominent shock transmitters. These results indicate that geopolitical fragmentation is associated with a more concentrated vulnerability structure around transition-metal markets, although the analysis identifies variance transmission rather than direct causal effects on decarbonization. From a climate-governance perspective, the findings suggest that critical-mineral exposure can reduce policy predictability and complicate coordination across energy-security and decarbonization objectives. The study contributes by combining relational asymmetry, critical-mineral dependence, and time-varying systemic connectedness within a unified framework. • Geopolitical risk reshapes the green transition through network reconfiguration. • Systemic interaction intensifies during geopolitical stress periods. • Transition metals emerge as persistent net receivers of volatility. • Risk escalation centralizes shock transmission across markets. • Findings highlight structural vulnerability in climate governance.
Global Energy Security and Policy · Market Dynamics and Volatility · Sustainable Finance and Green Bonds
The Environment and Directed Technical Change
Sustainable minerals and metals for a low-carbon future
Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models
On the network topology of variance decompositions
An international comparison of four polycentric approaches to climate and energy governance
Will Covid-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?
Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models
The concept of energy security
Yin Yang
Measuring Geopolitical Risk
Renewable energy and geopolitics
Macroeconomics and Reality
The evolution of ideas in global climate policy
From climate risk to the returns and volatility of energy assets and green bonds
Six Transformations to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals
The geopolitics of renewable energy
Making Industrial Policy Work for Decarbonization
Better to give than to receive
Weaponized Interdependence
Fueling the Fire
Ensuring Energy Security
The Regime Complex for Climate Change
Double exposure
Regime Resistance against Low-Carbon Transitions
| Highly cited | No |
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