Using machine learning to unravel the driving mechanisms of carbon balance in resource-based cities
A “pattern-process-service-sustainability” framework
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 24218237 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Peiyue Feng, Meiyu Sun (0009-0004-3493-5995), Wenxin Liu (0000-0001-7235-2396) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 151 |
| Pages | 107960 |
| Publication date | 2026-11-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Sustainable Cities and Society (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2210-6707 • E-ISSN: 2210-6715 |
| Publisher | Elsevier BV (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scs.2026.107960 |
| OpenAlex | W7215039861 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 72 |
Resource-based cities (RBCs) have borne carbon emissions far exceeding their own development needs during rapid urbanization, making them critical areas for achieving carbon neutrality. However, existing studies have largely focused on either carbon emissions or carbon sequestration as separate processes, thereby limiting refined spatial governance. Using multi-source remote sensing data for 125 resource-based cities, this study proposes an integrated analytical framework that incorporates the Pattern-Process-Service-Sustainability (PPSS) paradigm and combines interpretable machine learning with partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) to identify and explain the driving mechanisms of carbon balance. The results show that, from 2002 to 2023, China’s RBCs generally remained in a state of carbon surplus, but their carbon balance declined by 69.73%, while the proportion of carbon-deficit cities increased from 28.00% to 48.80%. Spatially, carbon deficits were mainly concentrated in coal- and oil & gas-based cities in North China, whereas carbon-surplus cities were primarily distributed in forestry-based cities and cities with favorable ecological backgrounds in Northeast and Southwest China. The SHAP contribution results indicate that soil retention (SDR), green space (GS), and habitat quality (HQ) are closely associated with carbon balance and exhibit pronounced threshold effects. The PLS-SEM results further reveal that ecosystem services serve as an important link between landscape patterns and carbon balance. Rather than exerting a simple linear influence, landscape patterns mainly affect carbon balance indirectly through the “pattern-process-service” pathway. These findings provide a theoretical framework and methodological reference for optimizing source-sink spatial configurations and formulating differentiated carbon-neutrality strategies in resource-based cities.
carbon balance · CO2 emissions · driving mechanisms · Machine learning · resource-based cities · Urban Sustainability · Environmental Changes in China · Land Use and Ecosystem Services · Sustainability and Ecological Systems Analysis
Twenty years of ecosystem services
Regional development and carbon emissions in China
Soil Conservation Measures Enhanced Soil Organic Carbon Storage Across China
Night-time light data based decoupling relationship analysis between economic growth and carbon emission in 289 Chinese cities
County-level land use carbon emissions in China
Urban landscape affects scaling of transportation carbon emissions across geographic scales
Refined assessment of carbon emissions from land use in China
Research on the coupling of ecological environment and socio-economic development in resource-based cities
Population density regulation may mitigate the imbalance between anthropogenic carbon emissions and vegetation carbon sequestration
Quantifying the trends and affecting factors of CO2 emissions under different urban development patterns
The Slowdown in China’s Carbon Emissions Growth in the New Phase of Economic Development
The role of soil carbon in natural climate solutions
Targeting net-zero emissions while advancing other sustainable development goals in China
Carbon surplus or carbon deficit under land use transformation in China
Spatial heterogeneity and driving mechanisms of carbon emissions in urban expansion areas
End of rope or phoenix nirvana? Exploring the evolutionary paths of coal resource-based cities in China
A global analysis of land use regulation, urban form, and greenhouse gas emissions
Spatial insights for sustainable transportation based on carbon emissions from multiple transport modes
Response of carbon balance change and carbon imbalance risk to trade-off and synergy of urbanization-ecological construction in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
Spatiotemporal dynamics and planning responses to address carbon balance and land-use mixtures in megacities
Territorial spatial carbon balance governance from a spatially refined perspective
| Highly cited | No |
|---|