Stakeholder expectations for future mountain forests

Climate change is altering the dynamics of ecosystem services provided by mountain forests, with social responses to changes (e.g., management) influencing their future availability and supply. However, research specifically targeting stakeholder expectations of future mountain forests and their ecosystem services has thus far not been addressed. However, this is required to foster sustainable management approaches in the future. In our study, we consulted diverse expert stakeholders from the forestry sector in the Northern European Alps of Tyrol (Austria), to understand perceptions and expectations of forest ecosystem services changes in the context of climate change. We conceptualize our findings within the social-ecological system and develop our own conceptual model for change in mountain forests. Stakeholders identified and ranked nine forest ecosystem services by importance and indicated their expected supply trend and change in importance at two time points in a high emissions climate pathway and business-as-usual land management scenario. Many key ecosystem services supplied by mountain forests were expected to decrease, particularly regulatory and maintenance services, including gravitational hazard protection and water regulation. However, these services were also expected to increase in importance in future scenarios, suggesting a future mismatch between demand and supply. Additionally, stakeholders identified interactions among services, namely trade-offs, synergies, limitations, and barriers in forest ecosystem services supply. We used qualitative analysis to classify these themes and develop a conceptual model of climate change propagation in a mountain forest social-ecological system, partitioning between social and ecological sub-systems. Our model can be used to understand how ecological and social sub-systems interact within mountain forest and climate change context, reducing complexity and allowing managers to identify opportunities and barriers for adaptation in management.

climate change impacts · Conceptual model · ecosystem service trade-offs · forest ecosystem services · forest management adaptation · montane forest · social-ecological systems · stakeholder expectations · Tyrol · water regulation · Forest Management and Policy · Land Use and Ecosystem Services · Sustainability and Climate Change Governance