Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change—An Update

Bibliographic Data

ID24314130
AuthorsTheodore Modis (0000-0003-3927-8328)
Year2020
Pages101-104
Publication date2020-01-01
Open AccessNo
TypeCHAPTER
VenueWorld-Systems Evolution and Global Futures (SOURCE_BOOK)
PublisherSpringer International Publishing (PUBLISHER • SG)
DOI10.1007/978-3-030-33730-8_4
OpenAlexW2998207527
ISBN9783030337308
LanguageEN
Citations received14
References cited4

In 2002, Modis published an article forecasting that the rate of change in our lives was about to stop accelerating and indeed begin decelerating. Today, with twenty years’ worth more data, Modis revisits those forecasts. He points outs that an exponential trend would have predicted the appearance of three “cosmic” milestones by now, namely in 2008, 2015, and 2018, but we have seen none. The logistic trend, however, predicted the next milestone around 2033 and could well turn out to be a cluster of achievements in AI, robotics, nanotechnology, and bioengineering, analogous to what happened with the milestone at the turn of the 20th century. He sees this as confirmation that the concept of a Singularity is not called for.

artificial intelligence · bioengineering · complexity growth · Exponential growth · logistic growth · MODIS · Nanotechnology · Robotics · Technological change · technological milestones · technological singularity · Economic Development and Digital Transformation · Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting · Scientific Research and Philosophical Inquiry