The Size and Effects of Emigration and Remittances in the Western Balkans. A Forecasting Based on a Delphi Process
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 3020394 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Marjan Petreski (0000-0002-2675-8325, University American College Skopje, corresponding author), Blagica Petreski (0000-0002-8728-272X, Economic Policy Institute), Despina Tumanoska, Edlira Narazani (0000-0003-0635-5155, University of Belgrade), Fatush Kazazi (University of Belgrade), Galjina Ognjanov (0000-0002-4102-1567, University of Belgrade), Irena Jankovic (0000-0003-1115-4702, Economic Policy Institute), Arben Mustafa (University of Belgrade), Tereza Kochovska (University of Belgrade) |
| Year | 2018 |
| Volume | 65 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 679-695 |
| Publication date | 2018-01-26 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Comparative Southeast European Studies (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2701-8199 • E-ISSN: 2701-8202 |
| Publisher | Walter de Gruyter GmbH (PUBLISHER • DE) |
| DOI | 10.1515/soeu-2017-0044 |
| OpenAlex | W2575313144 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
This paper aims at forecasting the size and effects of remittances and emigration in Macedonia, Albania, Serbia, and Kosovo, using a qualitative forecasting method, a Delphi questionnaire. The authors examined consensus building within and between two groups of respondents: ten experts and twenty remittance receivers per country, in three subsequent rounds-two on the same group and a third cross-round. Consensual results suggest that remittances in the projected five-year period will increase in Macedonia and Serbia, and will reduce in Albania and Kosovo. With less consensus, the results forecast that emigration will decelerate, except in Serbia. Emigration effects for the society have been forecast as predominantly negative due to skilled labour emigration, while remittances were forecast to maintain their effect on poverty in Macedonia and Serbia, and weaken in Albania. Consensus has been reached, except in Macedonia, that remittances will support labour market activity
Delphi · Delphi method · Demographic economics · Development economics · Economic growth · Economics · Emigration · Political science · Poverty · Remittance · Statistics · Computer Science · Migration and Labor Dynamics
| Unique citing works | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0.33 |
| Citation span | 2020 - 2024 (5) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |