Coupled Adaptive Cycles of Shoreline Change and Households in Deltaic Bangladesh

Analysis of a 30-Year Shoreline Change Record and Recent Population Impacts

Bibliographic Data

ID3155601
AuthorsThomas W Crawford (0000-0002-1343-7223, Virginia Tech), Munshi Khaledur Rahman (0000-0001-9057-9121, Georgia Southern University), Giashuddin Miah, Md Giashuddin Miah (0000-0002-3992-7706, Gazipur Agricultural University), Md Rafiqul Islam (0000-0002-7766-5575, Gazipur Agricultural University), Bimal Kanti Paul (0000-0002-8876-0359, Kansas State University), Scott Curti (0000-0001-9065-8639, East Carolina University), Md Sariful Islam (0000-0001-5220-5970, Virginia Tech)
Year2021
Volume111
Issue4
Pages1002-1024
Publication date2021-06-07
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueAnnals of the American Association of Geographers (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 2469-4452 • E-ISSN: 2469-4460
PublisherInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/24694452.2020.1799746
OpenAlexW3088978312
LanguageEN
Citations received3
References cited48

This research investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of shoreline change and associated population impacts in deltaic Bangladesh. This region is among the world’s most dynamic deltas due to monsoon precipitation that drives tremendous discharge and sediment volumes from the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna drainage basin. Theoretically, it draws on the concept of adaptive cycles that theorizes systems transitioning through phases of growth, conservation, release (collapse), and reorganization, with a focus on the cycle’s release (collapse) phase and coupled linkages between the natural system of shoreline change and social system of household behavior. We use Landsat imagery to produce and describe a thirty-year record of shoreline change for an 80-km stretch of the Lower Meghna estuary. Household survey data characterized population impacts and risk perception for a subregion with high erosion rates. Results identified significant space–time differences and patterns of shoreline change and population impacts consistent with the adaptive cycle. North, central, and south regions exhibited statistically significant differences in space–time patterns of shoreline change. Substantial numbers of households reported displacement due to riverbank erosion and high levels of experience and worry about future displacement. Results demonstrate how geospatial analysis of a multidecade record of shoreline change along with analysis of household survey data can identify regions most vulnerable to riverbank erosion with implications to inform mitigation and adaptation. This work adds empirical demonstration of coupled adaptive cycles to the literature. Limitations and complexities of the adaptive cycle framework are discussed

Climate change · Environmental resource management · Geography · Physical geography · Population · Population growth · Shore · Structural basin · Coastal and Marine Dynamics · Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics · Environmental Science · Flood Risk Assessment and Management · Geology · Oceanography

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