Reassessing Cyclical Changes in Workers' Labor Market Status

Gross Flows and the Types of Workers Who Determine Them

Bibliographic Data

ID3352778
AuthorsT Aldrich Finegan (Vanderbilt University), Roberto V Penaloza (0000-0001-8353-112X), Mototsugu Shintani (0000-0001-5799-8551)
Year2008
Volume61
Issue2
Pages244-257
Publication date2008-01-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueIndustrial and Labor Relations Review (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0019-7939 • E-ISSN: 2162-271X
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/001979390806100206
OpenAlexW1772411218
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited19

This analysis, using Current Population Survey data, yields statistically compelling evidence that cyclical variations in gross flows of U.S. workers-that is, variations by business cycle phase in the number of workers transitioning from one labor market state to another each month-were substantially smaller in 1986-2005 than in 1968-86. The authors identify six types of workers who would be expected to contribute to cyclical variations in these flows. Counter-intuitively, one such group consists of individuals whose decisions to enter or exit the labor force are independent of labor market conditions. Estimates suggest that these "noncyclical movers" are an empirically important component of gross flows into the labor force. The authors contend that the presence of noncyclical movers precludes accurate measurement of the contributions of workers whose entry and exit decisions are consciously influenced by labor market conditions

Business cycle · Current Population Survey · Demographic economics · Econometrics · Economics · Labor relations · Labour economics · Macroeconomics · Population · Secondary labor market · Split labor market theory · Demography · Employment and Welfare Studies · Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics · Labor market dynamics and wage inequality

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