Partisan Effects of Voter Turnout in Senatorial and Gubernatorial Elections
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 3389405 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Jack H Nagel (University of Pennsylvania), John E Mcnulty |
| Year | 1996 |
| Volume | 90 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 780-793 |
| Publication date | 1996-12-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Political Science Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0003-0554 • E-ISSN: 1537-5943 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.2307/2945842 |
| OpenAlex | W2099090901 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 59 |
| References cited | 28 |
Conventional wisdom holds that higher turnout favors Democrats. Previous studies of this hypothesis rely on presidential and House elections or on survey data, but senatorial and gubernatorial elections offer better conditions for directly testing turnout effects in U.S. politics. In a comprehensive analysis of these statewide elections since 1928, we find that the conventional theory was true outside the South through 1964, but since 1965 the overall relationship between turnout and partisan outcomes has been insignificant. Even before the mid-1960s, the turnout effect outside the South was strongest in Republican states and insignificant or negative in heavily Democratic states. A similar but weaker pattern obtains after 1964. In the South, which we analyze only since 1966, higher turnout helped Republicans until 1990, but in 1990-94 the effect became pro-Democratic. The conventional theory cannot account for these complex patterns, but they are impressively consistent with DeNardo's (1980) theory
Democracy · Demographic economics · Economics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Presidential system · Turnout · Voter turnout · Voting · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Gender Politics and Representation · Law · Public Administration
The Psychological Underpinnings of Political Behavior
Deliberative Democracy and Compulsory Voting
Compulsory voting and political participation
Reevaluating Competition and Turnout in U.S. House Elections
Election Day Registration's Effect on U.S. Voter Turnout
Even the Geeks are Polarized
Yes, structurally low turnout favors the right
Turnout, party system diversity and left-of-centre parties
Economic Status versus Same‐Sex Marriage Referenda in the 2004 Democratic Presidential Vote in “Appalachian” Counties
The turnout myth and referendum voting in the United States
When Increased Turnout Matters
The Voting Wars
Campaigns, Political Preferences and Turnout
The Forum
When registration barriers fall, who votes
More evidence of the effects of voting technology on election outcomes
Turnout and presidential coattails in congressional elections
The impact of turnout on partisan bias in U.S. House elections, 1972–2018
Inequalities of Political Influence in New Democracies
Phone-Based Gotv—What’s on the Line? Field Experiments with Varied Partisan Components, 2002-2003
Electoral Participation, Ideology, and Party Politics in Post-Communist Europe
Voter Participation and Party-Group Fortunes in European Parliament Elections, 1979-1999
America's Uneven Democracy
The Effects of Turnout on Partisan Outcomes in U.S. Presidential Elections 1960–2000
The Republicans Should Pray for Rain
Participación y resultados electorales en España
From voter ID to party ID
What Date Works Best for You? Changes in Electorate Demographics and Policy Priorities in Concurrent Elections
Where Turnout Matters
Are Voters Better Represented
The Impact of State Campaign Finance Laws
Does Median Voter Income Matter? The Effects of Inequality and Turnout on Government Spending
Regular Voters, Marginal Voters and the Electoral Effects of Turnout
The Dynamic Consequences of Nonvoting in American National Elections
Gubernatorial Coattail Effects in State Legislative Elections
Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Preferences of Florida’s Ex-Felons
Public Accountability and Political Participation
Voter Registration and Turnout in the United States
Do Labour Parties Suffer from Declining Turnout? Evidence from Norwegian Local Elections
The Effect of Compulsory Voting on Turnout Stratification Patterns
Macroeconomic Conditions, Voter Turnout, and the Working-class/Economically Disadvantaged Party Vote in Developing Countries
Does Turnout Decline Matter? Electoral Turnout and Partisan Choice in the 1997 Canadian Federal Election
What if Everyone Voted? Simulating the Impact of Increased Turnout in Senate Elections
Labor Organization and Electoral Participation in Industrial Democracies
The Political Implications of Higher Turnout
Voter Mobilization and the Obama Victory
The Perverse Consequences of Electoral Reform in the United States
Income, Preferences, and the Dynamics of Policy Responsiveness
La influencia de la eficacia política y la identidad partidista sobre la participación electoral en España
Changing votes or changing voters? How candidates and election context swing voters and mobilize the base
Estimating the unintended participation penalty under top-two primaries with a discontinuity design
Introduction
High turnout in the Low Countries
Change in) turnout and (change in) the left share of the vote
Compelled without direction
A behavioral measure of the enthusiasm gap in American elections
Only conservatives are voting in the rain
Turnout and Party Registration among Criminal Offenders in the 2008 General Election
Estimating the Electoral Effects of Voter Turnout
Change and continuity in the 1988 elections
Techniques of population analysis.
Why Americans don't vote
Information, Participation, and Choice
Pooled Time Series Analysis
Why Parties?
Placing Parties in American Politics
Issue Evolution
Voter Turnout in New Zealand General Elections, 1928-1988
Elections, American style
Regression in Space and Time
Turnout and the Vote for Left-of-Centre Parties
Declining Turnout in an Era of Waning Partisanship
Northern Bourbons
Turnout and the Vote
Does Heavy Turnout Help Democrats in Presidential Elections
Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in the Industrial Democracies
American Voter Turnout in Comparative Perspective
Citizen Activity
Pooling and Statistical Control
| Unique citing works | 59 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2,19 |
| Citation span | 1999 - 2025 (27) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 59 |